Obviously getting dumped on during this alt-market stomp hasn't been too fun. So far, BTC has only crashed for 10 days and we've since been consolidating for over a month ever since. However, as predicted, the alt-market is getting stomped to keep Bitcoin above $30k.
Logistically, this can keep happening until BTC gets to around 50%-55% dominance. It's never been a better time to trade in alts for BTC. Unfortunately, I just don't like BTC very much :D. Not going to take my own advice and sell off my favorite coins during a mega-bubble year. Let it ride!
We are still trapped in this damn wedge. We gotta get out of here soon (2 weeks) or I'm going to get pretty nervous about a return to $20k. Most Technical Analysis points to the textbook Wyckoff pattern that seems to be incredibly obvious and perfectly playing out. The problem is we need to start marking up quickly in the near future or the textbook pattern will get broken.
NINE TIMES! WOW!
At this point we've tested ~$30k support NINE times already including the month of January (4 times). The ice is thick. If $30k if fated to break to the downside we are going to get a lot of fair warning.
What to lookout for?
- Volatility will drop and we will start trading flat.
- Volume will drop (8k-10k/24h on Coinbase Pro).
- Price will likely melt the ice at $30k for a few days.
- HODLers will watch in disbelief, refusing to "sell the low".
And then: BOOM.
As soon as $30k breaks from that moment we'll get another flash crash and another round of FUD, complaining, and otherwise whining. Think BTC should be more than doubling in value every year? Too bad, that's just greedy.
But again, this support has been tested 9 times, so a break to the downside isn't going to catch us by surprise. It's going to be painfully obvious if it's about to happen. I'll keep everyone posted. The market always seems to respect supports that have been tested this many times. Bears aren't going to take that risk until they know for sure it's a good play.
Silver lining
If BTC marks-down again to $20k this will be definitively the bottom. It's almost guaranteed that Hive will also retest the infamous 10 cent support and I'll be able to pick up a ton of coins there as well. Just need to make sure I actually have some fiat to buy should the red-flag warnings show themselves. My finances are a bit tight lately because I haven't been working.
Speaking of work, I almost got fired from Amazon today. They didn't take kindly to me no-call no-showing two days in a row. Used to be you could get away with that but now they want you to report the absence online, which is totally reasonable. I just kinda wanted to mess with them because it's Prime Week and I need to quit for sure in a couple of months regardless. Kinda surprised I haven't done so already but this market collapse isn't doing me any favors on that front.
Due to price action I've changed several of my habits on Hive. For starters, I've gone back to powering up 100% of my blog rewards. Getting tired of constantly trying to trade HBD back into Hive when it's trading under $1. This time around I might keep it this way, because the next hardfork going through at the end of the month will cap HBDs price at $1.05. By all accounts it may not be worth it to accept HBD as a reward.
This is especially true considering taxes, as HBD technically counts as income but VESTS have no market value, and thus it is impossible to pay taxes on them without knowing their value. Their value only becomes known when they are converted to liquid Hive and sold on the market. Considering Hive is fungible and I have a massive amount of it that qualifies for long-term capital gains, I basically never have to sell off my blog rewards, ever. I can just keep it powered up until the end of time and use it to upvote and acquire RCs.
Speaking of RCs, wouldn't it be weird if one day they were sold for Hive? This emergent market would imply that RCs have value and users should have to pay income taxes on them as well just like any other yield farm, but most people will be giving away RCs for free. Yet another classic example of how this emergent economy doesn't make any sense with the current laws in place.
I guarantee no one is going to pay taxes on RCs, especially if they are giving them away for free like the system intended. How can one be expected to pay taxes on an asset they have to give away for free according to their own business model? Doesn't matter if there is some secondary market that implies they might have value to someone else.
1000 account milestone
On December 4th 2020 I had finally acquired 1000 account creation tokens. Shortly after that I used all of them to create accounts. Yep, I currently have access to over 1000 Hive accounts right now. Bot army here I come.
I did this for a few reasons, the first of which being that I think accounts on Hive are an obvious type of NFT, and owning them & their associated keys is kinda of like owning real estate on the blockchain. However, there's no point to owning property if there is no market to sell it on, so I hope one to to flush out the project I have on the backburner that would allow that to happen. Being able to buy and sell accounts is a mainstay of the gaming community and it has a nice added bonus of increasing privacy and reasonable doubt on the Hive network itself.
There's also the issue of being able to recycle accounts back into the ecosystem. Hive, being an inefficient database, should not be storing account information of inactive/dead accounts. By making every account a transferable NFT we give massive incentive for inactive/dead accounts to be resold & recycled back into the ecosystem, rather than tracking information on millions of dead accounts like Web 2.0 social media does. Imagine Hive having thousands of nodes all storing identical info on millions of dead accounts. That's just not sustainable in the long term.
It's taken a good 6 months, but I've finally run out of accounts to snipe and I'm back up to 1104 account tokens banked. Certainly doesn't hurt that I control 215k HP now and can claim over 10 accounts a day.
The cost of Hive account tokens is wildly variable. I always have to wait for them to go "on sale" so to speak. One day I might only be able to claim 35 accounts with 100% RCs, while right now I could claim 68 accounts with full RCs. The cost of accounts seems to flux back and forth every couple days, so all I have to do is wait for the cost to go down so I can pick up 10-12 accounts per day on average.
Again, I think these tokens are going to be worth a lot more than many give them credit. They are worth nothing until they run out. Crypto has a way of creating supply crunches real quick, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see. RC and account token supply shock? Soon™
Now that the value of Hive, LEO, and Proofofbrain has tanked so hard, my blog rewards are seriously nerfed from what they used to be. Yeah that's disappointing, but again these things have a silver lining.
When rewards go down on the network so do the number of posts as well. There's a lot more competition for rewards when the value of tokens is higher. When price is low it's easier to get noticed and gain more support. Not that I Personally need any more support than I already have now, but this really applies for everyone trying to make a name for themselves here.
Those who stick with it during the hard times are much more greatly rewarded during the good times. I've experienced this several times over already. It's a nice feeling in the end: struggling and eventually getting rewarded for that struggle. No one said this was going to be easy.
Rewards multiplier.
Through trial and error I've figured out that x99 (2 digit limit) is the maximum one can jack up their reward multiplier for HiveEngine tokens. I'll be distributing PAL/POB/PAY tokens via the 1%-2% upvotes I allocate on comments. They won't be worth much but it's nice to not waste the voting power. Unfortunately I don't really have the time to properly curate these communities properly. I'm sure my followers are good for it and will manage these small rewards accordingly.
Conclusion
No one wants to see their bags shrink, but there's a lot more to the cryptosphere than just money. In fact, once we break away from the chains of scarcity, money should be a low priority on our list. It's up to each of us individually to decide how much is enough until we let that surplus value overflow to those less fortunate who we'd like to succeed in this economy as well. These economies have a way of incentivizing their own growth like that. Plenty of synergy to go around in every direction.
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