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Black Swan Threats

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Welcome the beautiful disaster!

Full disclosure: I've FOMOed into the Ethereum market once again and margin traded DAI into Ethereum using MakerDAO loans. This is your cue to GTFO of the market and take some gains, as those who bet against me tend to do quite well with surprising accuracy.

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The market is looking pretty good in this moment.

  • Corporations padding reserves with Bitcoin.
  • Halving Event over 5 months in the past.
  • 20% of all USD minted this year.
  • Censorship crackdowns across all social media: pushing unifying narrative.
  • Negative interest rates.
  • Threat of bank bail ins.
  • Lockdowns and the threat of extreme measures to limit personal liberty.
Gee, kinda seems like we need to implement decentralized structures to counterbalance this heinously corrupted system.

With Christmas drawing near the flood of retail money entering the economy looks like a no brainer for short-term gains over the next few months. I certainly can't speak to what happens next.

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Of course, there are many variables that give me pause.

When I see accounts like @dbroze posting legitimately horrifying information I come back to reality and realize that literally anything can happen during this unprecedented time in history.

THE DARKEST WINTER?

FML, amirite?

Event 201?

When/where

Friday, October 18, 2019 8:45 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. The Pierre hotel New York, NY

One year ago, on October 18, 2019, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation partnered with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the World Economic Forum on a high-level pandemic exercise known as Event 201.

lol

Okay so 5 months before COVID-19 you ran a pandemic experiment... k...

Event 201 was a 3.5-hour pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic. 15 global business, government, and public health leaders were players in the simulation exercise that highlighted unresolved real-world policy and economic issues that could be solved with sufficient political will, financial investment, and attention now and in the future.

Recent economic studies show that pandemics will be the cause of an average annual economic loss of 0.7% of global GDP—or $570 billion. The players’ responses to the scenario illuminated the need for cooperation among industry, national governments, key international institutions, and civil society, to avoid the catastrophic consequences that could arise from a large-scale pandemic.

Think the list ends there?

Ug!

Yada yada yada

So of course a conspiracy theorist gets ahold of this info in retrospect and be like,

See! They were planning for this all along!

While others who have a bit more faith in the system would say:

Good thing they did all these tests so they'd be prepared for the real thing!

Which I think is funny because... were they prepared?

Kinda feels like they fucked up on purpose but that's just conspiracy me.


Then you have the whole narrative being pushed not so subtly that whoever loses the POTUS election is going to hunker down and not accept defeat... to the point of possibly declaring martial law. I'm about 100% positive the markets are not going to react positively to such a fiasco.

So either right now is the absolutely smartest or dumbest time to buy Bitcoin ever (AKA high risk high reward). Chance will determine what happens next I suppose. Unless of course it really all just is planned out as many around here claim. Personally I'm a believer in Chaos Theory. Those pesky variables will always show up to force those mean ol' master plans to pivot. Again, it's all up to chance.

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Gamble Gamble

Ideally what will happen is we're given the opportunity to trade on the razor's edge, and we can hedge our bets to come out on top. The last Black Swan due to COVID in March pushed Bitcoin to half the doubling curve from $8k to $4k. If that happened again Bitcoin could crash all the way down to $6k given the timeframe.

Will Trump call in the military and usher in a new authoritarian regime across this land? I doubt it, but I guess anything is possible in 2020. My read of the situation is that Trump is kind of a posturing little bitch who can't even sit in the war room without trying to escape the anxiety of it all. He's playing to his base, and his ultimate base right now are the Qanon folks who still think that this reality TV star is going to somehow solve all the world's problems. Get real.

Take the Red Pill

The above video has a liberal spin on it, but whatever, there's some accurate info in there. Plus I come from a liberal baseline so it makes it easy to swallow the other bullshit. Apologies to the majority of the #informationwar crew.

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Social media companies like Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube have seemingly all unilaterally come together to push a historic level of liberal rhetoric on the population. The ends justify the means, fellas! We gotta save Grandma from the Bad Orange Man! Over 200 THOUSDAND DEATHS! Don't look at percentages. 200k big number.

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Seriously, this shit is pretty crazy, they are literally putting footnotes in Trumps Tweets pointing them to "accurate information". Accurate according to who? W.H.O.? I'm not even necessarily saying I disagree with the information being currently presented... it's just that we already tried this, and it didn't work. When powerful people decide that they are the arbiters of truth... bad things happen... no matter what. Either now or down the road.

Look at this fucking video that AUTOMATICALLY started playing after I finished the Qanon dismissal on YouTube.

YO!

REMEMBER WHEN GEOENGINEERING USED TO BE A CONSPIRACY THEORY ONLY BELIEVED BY 'MORONS'?

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STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOL INJECTION

You mean chemtrails? Those things that people have been talking about for over a decade and we were all told we were morons for believing that contrails were chemtrails? Is that the Stratospheric Aerosol Injection you're talking about?

Seriously this shit is crazy.

Which version of 1984 is this again? Am I phase-shifting into alternate universes without realizing it? Full on Mandela Effect right now.

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You know you're taking crazy pills when contradictory statements just keep being made over and over and over again and the people around you just choose not to remember the past. Bury your heads in the sand deeper, guys. Maybe that will help.

Is it such a stretch now to believe that chemtrails have actually been a thing this ENTIRE TIME and now they are going public with the idea because they need to ramp it up into high gear and there won't be any way to hide it? No, it isn't. Yet all the people who said it was a conspiracy back then are going to blissfully ignore all that and accept the "new normal" because they still trust the authority. This is why we can't have nice things.

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This is the mistake many run into.

Humanity is diverse on purpose. Most people believe authority by design of evolution. It's easy to sit back and chastise those around us who will not wake up to the reality that they find themselves in, but where would we be as a species if no one trusted authority?

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I'll tell you where'd we be: back in the Dark Ages.

This centralized clusterfuck that we find ourselves in is the result of failing to scale trust up to a higher level. Once you get a big enough clump of people together the ones at the top will cannibalize the bottom of the pyramid for personal gain until it inevitably collapses into itself due to the weight of its own corruption. Theoretically, decentralization is the solution required to scale community trust to a higher level never seen before, but we are a long way off from that moment. Baby steps.

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Conclusion

Yeah, I was all over the place in this rant, but I believe the overarching message is pretty clear: the future is in an unprecedented & completely uncertain state.

As this relates to my crypto gambling, I hope that all the corporate Bigwigs are allowed to take those Q4 gains this year before this entire thing crashes into the mountain. Best case scenario, I can cash out between mid December and mid January, during the pocket of traditional peaks in this market. With Inauguration day on January 20th, the smartest move may be to exit the market temporarily in case shit really does hit the fan.

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I don't know about you, but I want to buy me some $7000 bitcoins. Seriously though the next 3 months are gonna be insane. Tread carefully.

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Black Swan Threats was published on and last updated on 30 Oct 2020.