Last night I was looking at the market thinking $206 was looking pretty good for Ethereum. So good in fact that I logged into my MakerDAO account so see where my collateral was at. It had increased from around 200% to 300%. Made me want to borrow more money and margin trade this market.

Double-edged sword

Every time the market spikes and you can borrow more money, there's that much more of a chance that the market will crash on you and you'll have to capitulate quickly or suffer the consequences. I have suffered the consequences more than once, but I'm willing to try again because I believe the market is going to be up for at least another 60 days.

I took out a sizable loan at the $206 level and used that loan as further collateral. Let's just say I hope Ethereum doesn't flash crash down to $135. Getting your CDP liquidated at a 13% penalty is not fun.

I was quite pleasantly surprised that Ethereum was worth more when I woke up this morning. Perhaps $200 will become the new support? Or will Ethereum never hit $200 again? Let's find out!

SBD Peg

Steem Backed Dollars have reached dollar parity finally. This is a very good sign for Steem. If the network starts printing SBD again our inflation that gets dumped on the market gets sliced in half. It's mechanics like this that will send Steem rocketing up in market cap, but it's also these same mechanics that put us into a 2 year bear market in the first place. Volatility breeds volatility.

I'm also losing a lot of interest in a lot of the random coins out there that I used to be excited about. It's nice to gain some focus in the market.

• Bitcoin
• Ethereum
• Litecoin
• Binance
• Monero
• Maker
• Steem (Steemleo)
• Golem

There used to be a lot more projects I was interested in, but now I'm starting to pull back and focus my time here. Truth be told, my confidence is also weighing heavily on Golem, because their goals are so lofty and complicated. Then there's Binance, which is more of a stock than a decentralized network. Perhaps they'll gain ground in DEX territory. Ethereum, Litecoin, and Monero are really strong right now and seem primed to continue out-performing Bitcoin during this run up over the next two months as halving mania sets in.

Litecoin is especially sitting pretty because it had its own halving 9 months ago, and has had time to drain a lot of liquidity from the supply pool. All it needs is a push from Bitcoin and all that liquidity will be gone, and the market will have to frantically trade volatile price discovery up to a higher, more sustainable level. Definitely hard to bet against Litecoin right now, but at the same time once I'm done swing trading it I'm probably gonna cash out without some hardcore fundamental development. They are talking about Atomic Swaps and privacy features, so we'll see when we get there. If anything, I'll definitely be around for the next Litecoin halving in 3 years. If history repeats, it will be one of the first opportunities to make some real money after a devastating bear market.

Still hoping for Monero atomic-swaps.

That tech would give everyone FOMO. Imagine being a privacy coin getting locked out in the cold as all the centralized exchanges start to turn you away. What do you do? Invent a technology that allows you to transfer to Bitcoin in a completely decentralized, anonymous, and permissionless way. Monero isn't going anywhere. Privacy is an important foundation.

Predictions.

Currently, the baseline value of Bitcoin is around the $7000 range. This puts us at an x1.40 threat level for crashing. For frame of reference, The Bakkt pump and dump peaked at $13,900 with a baseline value of $5000. That's a threat level of x2.78.

The question we have to ask ourselves:

What's more bullish? Bakkt or the Halving?

Threat Level Midnight.

I'd have to go with the halving. The market knows for a fact that the halving is bullish from previous experience. The hype should be a bit more pronounced. Therefore I'd probably sell a big chunk around this x3 bubble threat level. In two months the baseline value will increase another $1000 to $8000, putting it $3000 higher than just a few months back when we were in the middle of the institutional FOMO.

Baseline x3 would be $24,000 per coin in late March. We could easily hit all time highs in the next two months. If we do, I expect the entire cryptosphere is going to get some major money flowing into it. Many projects (like Steem) have fallen quite far behind on their respective value compared to Bitcoin. Once Bitcoin hits all time highs it will likely trigger traders to look for "better deals" elsewhere and generate one last round of FOMO before everything starts to crash due to miner capitulation.

We'll see.

Posted via Steemleo

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