Low volume warning still in affect
Volume for Bitcoin is still at dangerzone levels and I do think we'll be testing $37500 soon. Finding support at $39k would once again be unexpected and can only happen given a hyper bullish scenario combined with recent supply shocks.
Literally an hour after stating that I thought we'd retest the $37,500 from $39k, Bitcoin retook the critical $40k level on low volume. An hour after that we shot up to $41500, again on low volume.
The market is signaling that not only did we get a nice supply shock at $29k, but even at $40k, all the sellers are completely outgunned by the buyers.
At this point we've traded so much Bitcoin at the $40k range that a solid support has been forged as this level. A lot of this money coming in is institutional money, much of which won't sell till the end of the quarter or the end of the year (and beyond).
Shifting sands of capitulation.
Gambling on Bitcoin day trades is obviously extremely risky business. As I mentioned in my last post, one only has to be right 60% of the time to attain a huge edge over the rest of the market. Ironically, this is also why HODLING is one of the best strategies, because number just keeps going up on average over time (exponentially, in fact).
The point here is that when information changes we must often change our conclusions, especially considering such a volatile market. While this recent pump might not look like a very big deal (only a 5% gain), the way in which it happened is very significant.
It happened on low volume during a time when the market obviously wanted confirmation of support. We didn't really get any kind of confirmation or new baseline: $40k is the new baseline now, and it only took 5 days to confirm it. Quite impressive considering we were trading at $29k 10 days ago.
In combination with the two-week moon cycles, which doesn't end until August 8th, I think it's pretty clear we have plenty of time to test the big resistance at $45k over the next 7 days. In fact, volume is already starting to pick up but price is not declining: a very healthy sign of what's to come.
I can't turn it off!
Clearly I've been shitposting way too much about price speculation. Really need to add something of more substance to these posts. Let me begin with a proposition to convert Hive's internal market to AMM on the down low.
If I was in charge of Hive, I would immediately scrap the order book and convert it to an AMM yield farm. However, yield farms require yield, meaning Hive has to pay for liquidity using inflation.
I think 1% inflation is a good number to start with. I don't think we should change inflation of the reward pool or the witnesses or the dev fund or anything else: we make the rules. The whitepaper that the founders wrote is irrelevant, and deflationary economics are trash.
So I propose we just start printing say 4M Hive a year and allocating that money to the Hive/HBD AMM. The value gained from printing this 1% out of thin air far surpasses the 1% that it costs. That's what inflation is all about: allocating it to places that it has more value then the cost of it. AMM is clearly the next big play for Hive IMO. It's low risk and provides exponential liquidity combined with a way to earn passive yield on Hive without having to worry about downvotes.
Conclusion
Well, that's it. I gotta run to the store. Not even going to proof read this thing. It's probably got stupid errors in it. Shitpost completed. @edicted out.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Return from Capitulation: Supply Shock Immediately Confirmed; $40k baseline set. to edicted's Web3 Blog
