Continuation of Bouncy Ball & Snake Patterns

Last Night at 2 AM PST I got the confirmation I was looking for... sort of...

The snake pattern has dissolved and, instead of crashing like I was betting on, there's been a breakout to the upside. I can't say I'm surprised. Summer isn't over yet, and SBD was $0.98.

SBD

I've mentioned this before, but when stable coins are significantly above or below their peg, I've often noticed that we can assume the market at large is under/over sold. Because SBD has the loosest peg of any stable coin in existence, it also seems to provide the most information. When SBD is less than $1 the market might be oversold and due to rise, when SBD is > $1 we could be in for a crash. Honestly, using this metric to judge the rest of the market is surprisingly more accurate than one would expect. Sometimes I use DAI to help me out as well.

FOMO

I'm still left in an incredibly awkward moment concerning this trade. I told myself I wasn't going to buy back in unless BTC value broke the 12k resistance line. It is currently hovering right under that, so there's a fair chance I made the exact worst decision. Also, every time I make a trade I'm losing 0.25% because I'm using Coinbase, so that's annoying as well. If I was risking more money I would almost certainly be using Binance and getting my fees reduced with BNB coin.

Damages

Looks like I'm currently down 4.5%. Only have 2 official trades under my belt so far. A sell at $11381 and a buy at $11856. If you do the math that's only a loss of 4%, but then each trade taxes me for that extra quarter percent.

Going forward, I'll be keeping track of the win/loss ratio with points. I'm going to be making the trades with the same amount of money each time, so I can just keep track of the buy/sell numbers and not worry about how much they were for. Currently down 475 points. In the grand scheme of things this is nothing; just blip considering Bitcoin volatility at the moment.

Going forward

What I really have to worry about is that 12k barrier. I'm essentially betting right now that this resistance line will be broken... not the smartest bet, but it's mine.

I'm seriously considering setting a very aggressive stop-loss. If the market falls below say $11300 I'll take yet another loss and be down like 500 more 'points'.

Importance of recording losses

How many gamblers do you know who only talk about winning money? It's very easy in this space to bury your head in the sand and ignore losses because they are psychologically painful. Being honest with yourself is important in these situations.

So how much money have I lost? I don't know... $20? Like I said when I started this, it's just for fun.

Let's see how much more I can mess this up :D

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