The insufferable emotional swing of the financial roller coaster.
We get five days of green and look what happens. Sentiment is already shifting to "oh no it's too late to buy, I missed it". Comical really. To think that $22k is too late to buy when the doubling trendline says... hold on let me recalculate it... $37462. Yup, doubling curve claims the fair price of Bitcoin is over $37k. Wild. Unfortunately we have to wait for the FED to collapse the economy before we can get back there.
It's basically impossible for number to go up while the FED is aggressively increasing interest rates at a record pace trying to stop "inflation". And of course "inflation" in this context has nothing to do with the actual money supply and everything to do with the prices of goods that have skyrocketed from nothing other than government policy (COVID lockdowns and Russian sanctions). Funny how democrats can so easily break the economy and then expect someone else to fix it. That's the world we're living in I guess. No worries, this slow motion train wreck is finally going to derail and we can finally start picking up the pieces of the broken economy. Judging the the metrics in play it's only going to take one more foolish increase of interest rates to push multiple industries over the edge.
CPI 9.1%.
Looks like crypto Twitter has already forgotten about this data. Memory of a goldfish I tell ya. I predicted that Bitcoin would find support during the full moon (as it often does). Was hoping for $20k but it crashed back to the $18k level. Now we've been up for almost a week straight and people have forgotten what it's like when price can dump 30% in an hour. heh.
The FED said they would wait for the data to come in before announcing their decision with rates. This 9.1% CPI, while a lagging indicator, could easily be used as an excuse to increase rates again. Again, this may be a planned controlled demolition of the economy; something I've been predicting would happen since before COVID. There's only so long the economy can hang on before no one can save it. Once that happens the smartest thing to do is to mitigate the damage on the way down. Unfortunately this "soft landing" they've been talking about seems delusional at this point.
Could Bitcoin have already completely bottomed?
Sure, there's a significant chance that $18k is the uncrackable bottom. However, given what I'm seeing with the economy and the FED I have to assume we will return to that level at least one more time. I still feel like the stock market has to crash another 13% before we've entered that 'max pain' territory. Would be surprising if BTC didn't crash like 25% during that time. However, say BTC was trading at $24k during the 25% drop... again that gets us to a price of $18k.
Light at the end.
By the time the legacy recession has officially started, crypto will likely already be out of it. That's just the nature of the game. Crypto and tech itself evolve much faster than the legacy systems. Most of the garbage has already been flushed down the toilet. Most of the ridiculous longs have already been liquidated. Bulls are licking their wounds and getting excited again. Should be interesting.
Conclusion
Still... Don't fight the FED. There's no reason to go all in on crypto until the FED is FORCED to reverse course due to how badly they messed everything up. If they decide to radically increase rates again after already doing just that... this house of cards is going to blow over. Here's to hoping they rip the bandaid off quickly rather than over a slow grind. I'm ready to rebuild.
Make no mistake, Bitcoin (and crypto in general) is massively oversold. We are spring-loaded and ready to explode upward. However, no one is going to pull the trigger while the FED has their finger hovering over the global recession button. The second they are forced to reverse course we are going to get a bull run. Here's to hoping sooner rather than later.
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