Looks like the FED meeting is tomorrow at 2 PM Eastern
Posts like this are arguing about whether the FED will increase rates by 75 points or 100 points (1%). Literally no one thinks the FED is going to back off and start tapering. Everyone is looking at the 9.1% CPI like this is a number the FED can do something about. They can't.
Don't fight the FED
It's obvious at this point that the FED is not trying to create a soft landing (if that was even possible). This plane is going to crash into the mountain at full speed. In fact... we aren't even slowing down; we are speeding up. The article I linked posits that traders believe that the FED will be forced to taper and loosen policy as soon as February. In my opinion this is ridiculous. They are going to have to emergency reverse course long before then.
Don't fight the FED
Like I said, the recent bull trap to $24k BTC was absolutely comical. I couldn't believe that people an Twitter were already talking about how it was too late to buy in. LoL, what? "Too late?" WUT?! The doubling curve trendline is going to be above $50k by the end of the year. Before we crashed under this curve, this was a very boring level to be at. Not sure how many of you were around in 2020 when we just grinded at $8k to $10k for months and months and months. Same trendline. The doubling curve is the boring price. $50k at the end of the year is the boring price.
Don't fight the FED
Of course we can't get to $50k until the FED stops swinging their big dick around and mushroom-stamping the economy. They are raising rates because they need a buffer in place so they can lower rates when shit really hits the fan. As I've been saying for years now, this buffer has basically disappeared. We are going to be at 0% for like another ten years all over again.
I am hoping they do raise rates by 1%.
That would be amazing. Please, rip this bandaid off and start the emergency recovery plan. All the waiting around is getting under my skin. Get it over with already.
Here's the thing: USD has not lost any value. USD has gained value. that's what happens when rates get increased. USD gains value. Anyone remember how the Euro hit parity with USD recently? Perfect example of USD gaining value.
But how can USD be gaining value if purchasing power is down 9.1%?
Um, because the value of supply shocked assets goes up faster than a stable currency? Obviously, right? Not so obvious to most people who just want to complain about paying more for things. At this point I think the FED knows exactly what they are doing and they are using this as an excuse to create a recession on purpose. That's the easiest way to make money: volatility and insider trading.
Leading indicators:
@taskmaster4450's posts are extremely insightful. For a guy who hates economists... he sure is an accomplished economist. I guess it's the Keynesian economists who are totally full of it. Hm, yes, perhaps a model from the 1930's trying to explain the Great Depression (during the gold-standard days) isn't quite valid today.
The snapback is coming.
The warehouses are filling up. The deflation is coming, and the FED is fueling the fire with these rate increases based on trailing indicators like the CPI and the politics of all the people whining about higher prices. There isn't going to be a point where interest rates just stay flat. They gonna have to reverse course immediately when they see what they've done. That's when we get the spring-loaded bull run and possible correlation inversion.
Don't fight the FED
So much money on the sidelines right now just waiting to jump in. Why would they jump in when the FED is aggressively raising rates and actively creating a recession? Hm, yeah, they wouldn't. The second they reverse course everyone jumps back into the risk-on shit, and crypto is the most "risk-on" thing there is.
But not only that, I've already explained by crypto isn't even risk-on... but rather the solution to all these problems of trust and corruption that stems from our biggest institutions (central banking most of all). This is why I'll be betting big on a massive bull run even if it's at the peak of a legacy recession. All that's needed is a loosening economic policy to fuel it. If it doesn't happen soon, it will be forced after the dominos start to drop.
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This will be the first time that I actually have a ton of stable coins to buy the dip (or buy the spike) as soon as the FED announces they can no longer tighten economic policy. Obviously I should DCA over however many months... we'll see if I actually pull that off. Like most people, I have a nasty habit of pulling the trigger and doing it all at once like a maniac.
What am I buying?
Whelp... I'm already way over extended on the LEO ecosystem... so that leaves Hive and Bitcoin. I should buy BTC but... probably won't because BTC bores me. Hive is where it's at. Looking to get back up to my all time high of 180k powered up.
Insider trading?
It's easy to claim that insider trading is going on based on the FED raising rates, but also legit everyone is assuming this is exactly what will happen. Anyone can sell right now with a reasonable expectation that the market will crash further. Yeah, crypto is oversold. Doesn't mean it won't get a bit more oversold. Timing the exact bottom is not possible. Still, I think $18k is a good target for the triple bottom. Bulls have had enough time to regroup and suck up the bottom when it comes around.
Conclusion
I'm making a lot of assumptions here, but I think they are pretty solid ones. Everyone believes the FED will raise rates tomorrow. Not everyone thinks that's a terrible idea. It is. It's the worst idea ever. USD is not inflated. The supply chain is deflated. The FED can't do anything about that; they are powerless in this regard. All they can do is control the demolition, and that's what we see happening right now under the guise of a 9.1% CPI.
USD has not lost intrinsic value, only purchasing power. This is a critical difference that no one complaining about prices is willing to admit. If you don't understand the difference I suggest looking at the supply and demand of assets rather than the debt that purchases them.
Crypto is grossly undervalued, but no one wants to fight the FED. As soon as the FED announces they will taper, crypto will begin a spring-loaded bull market. Don't be surprised if it takes us back to the doubling curve at $50k by end-of-year. Again, that's the boring target, the one that people were telling me we'd never crash to when spot price was riding high at $50k+ (and the curve was at $20k). We'll get back there. It's only a matter of time. Crypto is the solution, despite what the woke propagandists would say.
Will refactor in two weeks. No buying until then.
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