Don't waste your time, or time will, waste, you.
Ah well, I've been in Pennsylvania for a year, and I can't help but feel like I have wasted my time a bit. What I have I accomplished this year? Not much. Although I have been keeping up on the blog and the crypto research and the community interactions, in addition to avoiding a drug-induced time-wasting spiral like I have been known to do from time to time. So that's something.
I feel like I could be doing more, but I always fall into the trap of trying to take all the shortcuts. I should be coding more, but coding more aggravates my chronic injury. The reality of the situation is that I should be doing a lot more upkeep so I can be more productive. I need to go to the gym and do physical therapy, strength training, and something like yoga. I need to buy a standing desk setup (and possibly an entirely new computer). I need to put myself on more of a schedule to make sure I get things done in a timely manner.
But you know, at the end of the day, it is very easy to just keep doing what I am doing right now, which is wait out the bear market and continue to pay attention to the global economy and geo-politics and crypto. There really is an infinite amount of things to discuss these days. How about that Credit Suisse banking collapse? Wen bail-ins and haircuts? It's the thing we've been talking about for years, and everyone is getting cold feet.
Imagine being on the brink of a banking collapse, while also simultaneously being bearish on crypto. Crypto's goal is to replace the banking sector (at least that's the first goal). The competition is about to implode and everyone is bearish? My my my, how the spot-price can get inside of our heads. The greed vampire is not our friend to be sure. Is this how people would feel if BTC was $40k right now? How is that a valid perception?
Is a banking collapse bearish? I mean... probably... in the short term, but still unclear if this is true. Many would have to sell all their crypto just to pay off their other debts. A buddy of mine just sold all his crypto because he had to buy a house and the bank wouldn't give him a loan even though his credit score is in the high 700's. During times of emergency, people need liquidity, and are willing to take the loss to get it.
https://twitter.com/_BitcoinMatrix/status/1576569531237294080
Holding money is the greatest form of charity that anonymously increases the purchasing power of those who need to spend.
Everyone should take a moment to reflect on that statement. While it has flaws, it is also very true in many circumstances. Diamond hands prop up the markets so that the people who need money the most can still sell the bottom for an emergency expense. This is why DCA is so important. If we sell a little during the good times, it should not be thought of as a loss should the price keep going up, but rather a hedge to ensure that someone else can bail if shit hits the fan later.
This is why our language used to describe certain things in crypto makes zero sense in many contexts. The term Impermanent Loss implies a loss has occurred, when in reality it is simply DCA buying/selling while also providing liquidity in addition to earning yield. When crypto whales are accused of being rich or greedy or lucky... is that really the case? The reason they have that value parked in the network is because they haven't spent it. If they do spend it... you lose money as a holder. We see this genre of flawed logic employed often within the space. Everything is not as it seems.
So not only is there a scandal in chess between Magnus Carlson and another up-and-coming grandmaster over cheating... we are seeing these same types of claims popping up in poker as well. Hm, I wonder if they are cheating in a similar way? Would be interesting to know for sure but obviously we never likely will.
It's events like this that make me realize how important crypto is. I still imagine the day when a decentralized variant of poker comes out that is basically unhackable and rake-free. The fact that POW BTC mining creates infinite unhackable random numbers every ten minutes is crazy, but not as crazy as the fact that no one is leveraging this value into a derivative product from that runoff. Still early. So so early. Wen do we enter the midgame? I do not know.
Where's your crown, King Nothing?
What's the better outcome? To lord over an Empire of Dirt that has very little value, or to share ownership in a society that has exponentially more value? If you could go back in time 2000 years, do you think you could get a king, pharaoh, or emperor to come back with you, even though they'd no longer be in charge?
Of course you would. They'd load up as much gold as they could get into the time machine and off you'd go. Imagine that. "You're telling me gold still has value 2000 years from now?" Yes! It sure does! At least for now it does. Crypto/tech could strip that value eventually, but until then gold is still quite valuable. On a certain level, it's very impressive that the money from thousands of years ago still has value today. Fiat won't be able to say the same. That pyramid scheme will collapse long before then.
Crypto is kinda like this.
Many think that governments and the "DEEP STATE" would sooner shut off the Internet and usher us into the next Dark Age rather than let crypto take over. Really? So the king will rule over their pile of dirt rather than increase their wealth by x100 within the new system? That's simply just not how reality works. We can always trust that on average people are going to be greedy and act within their own best interest. Crypto is quite basically too good of a technology to pass up. Too much value; too much to lose. CBDC will never happen; it has no value and there are too many conflicts of interest. Bitcoin will be around for at least another 50 years. Probably closer to 100.
The world spins on.
And it does feel like we are on the brink these days, doesn't it? People talking about complete and utter economic collapse. World War 3. Nuclear warcrimes. Germany freezing to death. Dollar milkshake theory as the Euro and Quid go belly-up. Obvious terrorists attacks against critical pipelines. Food and oil processing centers burning to the ground in record numbers. Ships blocking/destroying canals when that kind of thing was never reported on before. Negative consequences of the jab coming to light confirming everything the conspiracy theorists said about them, as if it's some kind of surprise now that "the science" confirms it. The Clown World is legendary right now. We can see it all around us. Less than half the population is paying attention. Head down, don't make waves. Don't be an NPC.
Conclusion
Yes, we are obviously in for some pain. There was no other possible outcome. The only way out is through. We've loaded up on unsustainable debt using questionable collateral, and the debt has come due. The chickens are coming home to roost.
All I can say is that crypto is obviously the answer to a crippled debt-based economy and the ultimate solution to the question of collateral. The means of production are being returned to the people, and this awkward transition of power is not going to be a pretty one. Show me a fool that is king on Hive. No pain no gain.
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