Bitcoin has done nothing but go up during the bearish moon cycle, and I can't say I'm very surprised. Sure, it could flash crash at any moment, tomorrow is the Blood Moon after all. However, none of that wizardry really matters any more. The macro 4-year cycle wins. Bitcoin is on it's way to $250k+ in less than three months. Crazy thought. It sounds ridiculous when I say it out loud.
This is a somewhat bittersweet moment for me.
If the market really does bubble that high, surely there will be a year-long bear market to follow. That's not going to be much fun. Lame. I'm essentially stuck in a holding pattern. I can't buy more crypto, and I can't sell it either. Stuck in that awkward transition period.
It's crazy that Bitcoin has been above the doubling curve for an entire year straight. I guess that's what happens when the market tries to price in the 4-year cycle an entire year early. However, we are right were we should be now in terms of percentages comparatively to 2017. With a little luck we will complete the pattern and embrace full FOMO madness.
October isn't even the good month.
No Dip November is coming. Although this time around I think it's going to be One Dip November, as the chance that we don't flash crash at $100k unit bias seems pretty slim. This is pretty much what happened in November 2017 as well. Had that dip from $7500 to $5500 (25% dip) but with a massive rally into Degen December to peak near $20k.
It's honestly pretty crazy to see BTC at x3 the ATH while networks like Litecoin haven't even gotten back to the ATH yet. This is how alts work. First Bitcoin moons, sucks up all the dominance, then money starts flowing to alts. Expect dominance to continue to rise while number go up. Alt-season doesn't start till the plateau. Deal with it.
Degen December
In 2017 we saw the ultimate 3 week rally right at the end where BTC went x3 in 21 days. I expect the same thing to happen this time around as well. $100k will be the baseline that gets set in November, and an x3 will bring us somewhere near $300k before the volcano blows its top and we get crazy volatile sideways action. Again, I could even see it getting all the way up to $400k.
How can we time to top and try to take gains?
Obviously this is the ultimate hattrick to pull out, as it allows us to capture maximum gains. I did a pretty good job of this last year. Check out this post I called it exactly down to the day. When volume drops off a cliff this is when you have to be worried about the flash crash. Hopefully I can time it that well this time around too. That would be pretty epic.
Conflicting prophecy.
I thought it would be a good time to short the market because of the moon cycle, but I've also been predicting $65k before the end of October for months now. Not sure what I expected. I guess this was the only way it could have really gone down. A flash crash would have put us too far behind the curve.
At this point I think we are relatively safe until $100k. I imagine there will only be 10% retracements maximum, which are impossible to predict and very hard to make money off of. This is not the time to be trading. October and No Dip November are massive hold months. In fact, I'm holding all the way until Christmas. Gotta get that Christmas money. No coal in my stocking this year. Hallelujah!
The waters have already been tested pretty hard. A few whales tried to sell the news on the ETF and they've already been wrecked. It's hard to imagine any kind of crazy dump happening for a while. Maybe we test $60k again, but that's not really a big deal at all at this point. I guess that's what you get when entire countries are legalizing this thing as a foreign currency. My god... I would not want to be a regulator this day in age.
Conclusion
The bulls are fully dominating. The 4-year cycle is proving that it trumps all other metrics of analysis once again. I'm not worried about a full 30% retracement until $100k-$110k. Onward and upward. The FOMO is coming. Ugly, glorious, FOMO.
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