Whelp that sucked!
The bear market nightmare continues!
I was actually going to make this post yesterday but thought I should wait in case we actually got a real dip. At 5:00 PM I saw the down market and decided to selloff the rest of the Mandala funds I was gambling on instead of liquidating. Around $1000. I go to dinner and come back to... this...
Ha so I guess that's an interesting silver lining but still being in the red just when it seemed like we were making a comeback is discouraging to say the least. This downward move marks the end of summer, and I think we should buckle up for more disappointment until the end of September, which is often a great time to buy back in. Liquidity in the markets is simply just not good in Q3, but Q4 is very often the best quarter. Considering we've had two shit Q4s in a row (2022 and even 2021 marked the end of the rally) I'm holding out hope that this next one will actually be quite good.
Of course the economy still flounders about so we'll see about that. They're now talking about downgrading the banks in terms of credit and trustworthiness. No surprises there but that's potentially bad for everyone. It creates a deflationary environment that sucks all the liquidity out of the markets and absolutely cripples risk-on assets like crypto. Very sad.
It's a bit sad we are this dependent on legacy systems at this point, but that's just how things operate eh? People won't rebuild infrastructure from the ground up unless it systemically fails. No one wants to be stuck doing that chore, and it often only gets done if it absolutely has to be done. If it's not broke don't fix it. Are the banks broken? Sort of? We know they aren't sustainable but obviously they still work in terms of being able to get a loan and whatnot.
We stand on the backs of giants.
That's just what humanity is good at honestly. We build and we build atop the build until it all comes falling down. As strange as it may sound it's often better to have a controlled demolition of these things, even if the responsible party benefits from it.
Elon Musk sells all $373M in Bitcoin.
I'm not sure how much this has to do with the current dip, but it certainly helps. Upon further review, it's unclear exactly when these funds were sold, only that it's been reported on today in the Wall Street Journal. Of course during a time such as this even the news of a big sale can cause FUD, especially as we close out the summer.
$769M in overleveraged longs liquidated.
Lots of greedy bulls were way way overleveraged at $29k after we bounced off that level multiple times. Of course this time they got absolutely wrecked by the bears, which is fully deserved. These people need to learn how to buy spot. Going 10x at $29k is just such a dipshit thing to do, but here we are. I blame crypto Twitter honestly :D. DEGENS I TELL YOU! Gotta love em.
Hunkering down
Like I said I sold out my Mandala position just in time so now I have enough runway to last me around 8 months of rent and food/bills. I fully paid off my credit card and they gave me an increased limit and my credit score is higher than it's ever been in my entire life (which is hilarious). I'm glad I capitulated and paid it off rather than doubling down like I normally would.
I'm still looking to increase my Bitcoin bag.
The amount of Bitcoin I have access to is pretty pathetic. Of course blogging on Hive is my job, so the only way for me to get more Bitcoin is to sell Hive into it, which is even more cringe. Luckily I have over 2000 HBD saved up so I'll either be paying bills with that sometime down the line or buying back into BTC and Hive in late September, which always seems to work out pretty well during lulls like this in the market. September buyins are the best hopefully I can scrape up some more cash by then.
Too bad I don't have a 'real job' amirite?
After playing so much Factorio lately I feel pretty dumb for not taking a full time position at Amazon in the logistics department a few years back. Here I am playing a video game that's nothing but logistics and I feel as though I may have squandered an easy opportunity to acquire a lot of crypto back in those days when I was still living in CA. Oh well. These things happen. Committing to full time work isn't all roses anyway. I doubt I would have been able to maintain my blog and my reputation here had I chosen that path.
Conclusion
No one likes these red days (unless you're fully bearish which I never am). This might be an extreme overreaction in the market due to the spacex news in combination with bulls trying to defend a dubious support line with leverage.
The end of September is only 6 weeks away so this lull in the overall upswing shouldn't be too terrible. I was going to say be on the lookout for $25k BTC and 25 cent Hive, but lol after today we are almost already there so that prediction might already be outdated. At this point I think we might go a bit lower like $22k BTC and 22 cent Hive unless we can quickly recover out of the spacex fud. Hopefully the worst is behind us but September is almost never a good month so keep reasonable expectations. Luckily a killer November may be on the horizon as is often the case given the classic market cycle. One can hope.
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