As per usual, the market is very weird and unpredictable.
On the one hand, it's been nice to see the slow upward trend of Bitcoin holding steady. On the other, I can't help but feel like I've seen this before. How many times has the market appeared strong with lower volatility and higher and higher prices, only to nuke shortly after?
Looking at the moon cycles, we got absolutely shredded during this full moon, which was the time we were supposed to be making gains. I think I said something along the lines of, "If we aren't trading above $50k by Feb 1st I'm worried. Ah well, I'm worried. Honestly I'm expecting to nuke down to $30k sometime in Feb or March.
That being said if we actually look at the history of February going back a decade it's always been pretty bullish... at least to start. Again, the only exceptions are 2014 and 2018, which were deflations of the previous year's mega bubble. Still, it give me pause because we are trending inside that exact four year cycle.
2022...
So again, it would make sense that Feb nuked to $30k given that we are in the same four year cycle and the new moon right at the beginning of the month is not a good omen. But then it would also make sense if we were in a massive bull run for the next 2 or three weeks because that's what happened every other year.
It's really hard to tell. Are we due to completely deflate back to the doubling curve, or have we dumped so much that a dead-cat-bounce is imminent? All I can say is that it's not going to trade sideways. One of those two things are happening. Volatility incoming: A pump to $50k is just as likely as a drop to $30k. However, a drop to $30k leaves us in much more certain territory (only up) while a pump to $50k leaves us wondering if we are going to nuke during tax season.
Really Biden? REALLY?
And then we have Biden coming out of left-field talking about how crypto poses a "national security threat" and that he's going to use executive orders to regulate the space. Is this bitch serious? Amazing how crypto used to be a laughable nothing technology and now it's "a threat to national security". Uh huh, sure bud. Just keep doing what your handlers are telling you. Doing great, old man.
Institutions want regulations
Funny thing about him saying he's going to regulate crypto... interesting... that's exactly what institutions want so they can dump billions of dollars into the space. Many people assume the market will nuke but I feel like the opposite has just as good a chance of happening. Big-money legacy players have been calling out for better regulations for years. I guess we'll find out.
At the same time if you invest in networks impossible to regulate like Bitcoin and Hive, those technologies will be the only ones standing after the regulators rip everything else a new asshole. These regulatory purges are absolutely required and indeed necessary. We don't want to find ourselves in a place where centralization is allowed to take over again. The regulators will prevent that from happening. Their gatekeeping can only help the truly decentralized projects evolve and thrive in the long term. We should thank them, even if they tank the market from time to time.
Russia Russia Russia!
With all the drama in the Ukraine, it's hard to tell if he's being serious or if this is just some performative bullshit because Russia recently said they are going to use crypto to their advantage. Once again, I feel like we just have to get past March and we should be good to go.
Again, the Ripple Lawsuit with the SEC is also scheduled to conclude in April, meaning a potentially devastating bottom in March could be the best time to buy ever ever should the stars align in our favor after that time. Would be nice.
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@khaleelkazi/wen-does-soon-become-now-for-polycub-or-certik-audit-update
PolyCub
Wouldn't you know it, we got an update on pCUB, and it's ready to launch. Unfortunately, Certik audits are backlogged and it could take a month or two in order to get their shit together. I was floored wen @khaleelkazi said he asked if he could pay to expedite the process, and they wanted to charge him $40k instead of $20k, and this would only shave a week off the timeline. Yeah, understandably, he said no. Fuck that noise, that's just ridiculous.
I guess Certik is in such high demand now that everyone wants an audit they can act all king-of-the-castle about these things. Annoying but still it's nice to know that pCUB is ready to launch and now they have extra time to polish it up before we're good to go. It's also nice to know that nothing is being rushed and the chance of a hack is tiny.
pCUB might honestly launch at one of the best times ever. If Bitcoin has fully bottomed out to the doubling curve a new project might be just what people are looking to ape into to forget about all the red we just went through. Greener pastures and all that.
Hive
Here we see another illusion of bullishness that could easily evaporate instantly. I keep seeing the price of Hive higher than the MA(200) on aggregators because UpBit continues to trade at a premium seemingly constantly. However when I actually log into Binance we see that the MA(200) continues to just bat us down effortlessly. That's pretty bearish... if we end up death-crossing again (MA(25) below MA(200)) I think Hive will be in for some more rock-bottom grinding. I'll definitely be stacking more if we get back to 70 cents.
Conclusion
The markets looks pretty bearish to me, but maybe that's a great thing. We all know how good I am at guessing the wrong direction. Whatever the case, I can almost guarantee we don't keep trending sideways in the short term. In the next three weeks I expect to either be trading at $50k or $30k. Hedge accordingly.
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