My Bitcoin predictions have been pretty on point lately.
So Bitcoin is right where it's supposed to be: retesting supply shock at $44k... Looks like $44k is the absolute floor at this point.
These moon cycles are coming in extremely clutch.
Full moon doesn’t hit till August 22nd, but the last local bottom was three days before the full moon on July 23rd so definitely some wiggle room here.
Once again we see that three days before the full moon (today August 19th) the market moves up confirming supply shock (at $44k). The new moon was on August 8th and during the "bad two weeks" we confirmed supply shock at $44k, spiked to $47k, and then crashed back down to $44k 11 days later.
We can see from the previous history that when the price consolidates like this instead of moving down, we are being primed for a huge run up until early September (the next new moon). I fully expect to be testing $60k and quite possibly $65k in the weeks ahead. Certainly there is some amount of resistance at the $50k and $55k levels, but I think this run will make short work of those lines during these mega-bubble foothills.
To reiterate
September (especially mid-late September) have never really been a bullish time for Bitcoin. I think at best we trade flat, which is largely dependent on how high we go during this next parabolic run. The higher we go over the next few weeks the higher the chance that we crash in September. I'll definitely need to DCA sell at least a little bit of assets in early September with a plan to buy back in after the backwash hits.
Backwash
Of course there are no guarantees when this irrational market is concerned. September very well could be the first insanely bullish end to Q3 that Bitcoin has ever seen. I don't expect this, but anything is possible. All that needs to happen is that buying pressure exceeds selling pressure.
Supply/demand wins
However, the reason that mid-late September will probably trade flat (or even down) is that certain people are guaranteed to sell. In fact, the better Bitcoin does in August the more reason institutions have to take quarterly gains so that they can take the quick victory and appease legacy share holders.
September has always been a time to tighten one's belt and cut the fat. After a summer of spending money and going on vacation, all the kids are heading back to school and all the parents are tightening those pocket books. So begins the consolidation and the saving so that everyone can afford the vacations and gifts purchased at the end of the year. A new cycle begins.
There's also the looming issue of unemployment and rent forgiveness running dry. Who knows what's going to happen there, but our economy is anything but stable at this point. As long as crypto depends on the legacy system, which it absolutely does at the moment, we are subject to the whims of legacy money (at least in the short term). We can't break away from this tether until crypto itself is generating more value from within than it receives from venture capitalists and institutions. That's probably not going to happen for at least another ten years so don't hold your breath.
Conclusion
These last two weeks of consolidation have meshed up perfectly with the predictable moon-cycle patterns. It appears as though we will springboard forward until the next new moon on Sept 6th. The market is primed for a pretty strong parabolic rally given the timelines.
Volatility creates volatility, so the better Bitcoin performs during this next cycle the worse it should perform during the September backwash. Supply shock has already been confirmed at $44k twice now, quite convincingly, and I don't think we'll be headed lower that than... pretty much ever.
Again my long term targets are $250k Bitcoin at the peak of the next mega-bubble, with an 80% crash down to $50k late 2022, so this may be the last time we see $44k ever again. Considering the supply shocks in play I'm practically counting on it. 2021 mega-bubble strong. We've been waiting 4 years for this: no need to get cold-feet so close to the finish line.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Return from Market Watch: Goddess Moon Returns 3 days early once again! to edicted's Web3 Blog
