URGE TO SELL: RISING

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Over the last couple of days I've had the worst gut feeling that I need to sell a bunch of crypto to keep my head above water. Luckily I can't remember a time that my gut instinct ever did me any favors when it came to trading the market. Quite the opposite in fact, betting against my gut feeling seems to work out shockingly well.

I remain in a holding pattern until the New Moon.

My crystals girl energy whispers that I should just hope that one of them New Moon pumps is coming. The timing is interesting. New Moon is in 5 days on the 26th of October. The extended descending triangle comes to a point in 8 days. Meh, who knows, maybe we get a pump out of nowhere, but I doubt it... just look at how bad the economy is doing. Yikes.

To be fair this is pretty much what I expected. I expected the macro resistance to push us into the $18500 range before any kind of possible breakout. Volume is still shockingly high. Lots of Coins are continually trading hands at this level. Again, none of this looks like 2018 despite what many are saying. Every time we push just a little bit lower in price the volume tends to skyrocket. Again, seems like a very rock-bottom level.

I've unwound a lot of my degen RUNE gambles at a slight loss. Wondering if I should just dump the rest into BTC. Certainly seems like the smart thing to do at this point. If number goes up, great. If number goes down, alts like RUNE will get hit much harder than Bitcoin.

I feel like I should sell a tiny bit of my Hive as well, but...

BOO

Exchange wallets have been down since the hardfork... and now we are doing another hardfork to repair the last hardfork. So much for going off without a hitch, eh? Oh well, these things happen, but still, it's much harder to buy and sell Hive with major exchanges being out of commission. And now that we are forking all the exchanges will have to upgrade their nodes all over again. Annoying to say the least.

On one side of the equation, I'd really like to get back up to my all time high voting power of 210k HP, but also I'm quite overextended on Hive and definitely need more Bitcoin at this juncture. After all, holding Bitcoin was what got me all the Hive in the first place. Only seems fair.

On the hourly Bitcoin chart we see the same story that has played out time and time again over the last few months. Bears just keep trying to push lower during early morning hours and the dumps get instantly bought back up by the time I even check the markets. Again, to compare this to 2018 just seems nonsensical to me. Something different is going on here. How it will turn our remains to be seen.

The slightly more liberally declining line shows that we've already pierced macro resistance and have been testing it as support every day for the last 5 days. Is that bullish? Doesn't feel bullish, but again, that's just my gut feeling, which is meaningless. Still holding out hope for that New Moon pump but... meh. At least the FED hike seems to be priced in, so that's something.

Betting on a pivot from the FED preemptively is a mistake. The FED seems more than determined to crash this plane into the mountain... so just let them. It's easier to buy back into the market after the pivot is declared rather than before. Buying into a 10% pump is not a big deal, as easy money returning to this economy will easily spike crypto several multiples.

As far as Hive is concerned, as stated weeks ago, 43 cents is a good buy, and we are already at 46. Not gonna lie, I'm a little annoyed I didn't sell any at 60 cents and instead opted to sit there and watch number go up. Classic case of the Moar. But again, I'd very much like to get back to where I was before a year ago at that 210k voting power level. If I make 1000 Hive a week on blogs/curation it will take me 23 weeks assuming I pay for stuff using my other bags. A daunting task, but I think I'm up to the challenge. Stackers gonna stack.

Conclusion

The holding pattern continues. Aren't 'bear markets' great? Simultaneously boring but also terrifying. Then again, it's been 4 months since a new low. It's all about perspective.

As someone who survived the 2018 bear market and subsequent crypto winter, I can say with some authority that the first bear market one suffers is definitely the worst one. After that, it only gets easier. Those who make it through the current bear market will be greatly rewarded. Until then, keep stacking.

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