I'm feeling a lot better today. Yesterday I started my morning with a ridiculous 3 hour session of Starcraft 2. Turns out playing a fast paced competitive game at an expert level is extremely draining. Go figure.

I thought, meh, I'll just play some games now and be productive later. Ha, I'll never learn. Gotta do the important stuff first BEFORE wasting all my brain power on a dumb game. Live and learn I guess. Surprisingly even with chronic pain I sleep pretty well so every day is still an opportunity to actually get something done.

I've also been waking up earlier which is nice. Not sure why this started happening but I take it as a good sign. I take my sleeps pretty seriously and wake up whenever I feel like it. Haven't needed an alarm for more years than I can even remember. Unlike most people, I'm lucky enough to not have that time crunch between getting sleep and going to work.

Again, I haven't needed to wake up early on a consistent basis for perhaps over a decade. It's sort of a blessing and a curse at the same time. The blessing being I can always get enough rest and the curse being that I have to self-motivate and actually be responsible rather than being forced by pre-determined engagement like going to work. It's much easier to stay on track with a predetermined schedule, but such schedules also leave little room for deviation/creativity.

I can say from personal experience that it's a lot easier to push through and get things done when there are others depending on you to do so. Even more true when there are consequences for being late or doing a sub-par job. For example, I find it extremely easy to push myself at the gym if I'm doing a class with a group of people rather than trying to get exercise at home. When I'm at home I have trouble even breaking a sweat because as soon as I hit any kind of resistance level I automatically tend to tone it down or lengthen the period of time rather than just pushing through. Socially, group mentality is very strange and is worth its own post some other time.

Even with the market down today I find myself in a pretty optimistic place as far as a potential summer bull run is concerned. After all I already predicted that we'd be down until this reversal pattern finally materializes. Goddess Moon commands it. Full moon is on the 24th. Should be interesting to see if this pattern is just going to keep repeating for the foreseeable future.

But you know, it doesn't even really matter at this point in my opinion. Market could go up, that would be great. Bitcoin could also crash to the $20k support line, that would also be great. It's been so long since I've gone long and that would be the perfect level to hunker down and start trading on margin again. We are in a sweet spot with a lot of options in all directions.

Trips

The descending triangle is surprisingly still in play. The false breakout only lasted a week. We are testing the ice once again. A triple/quadruple bottom is nothing to worry about if the market has the power to bounce off of it. Right now our volume is very good so I would be floored if we broke below $30k while it was this high.

What we really need to worry about is if we start hovering on support and volume drops significantly. That's usually a pretty good indication that the ice is cracking and we're about to crash as soon as some bear pulls the trigger and dumps. Considering the futures market, it's never been easier to short Bitcoin and dump borrowed coins owed back at interest.

Timelines

Basically we need to definitively get out of this triangle over the next three weeks. This consolidation has lasted long enough, and if we don't have the demand to go higher by then, I'm going to venture a guess that we've completely run out of momentum in the short-term. Triple bottom is fine, but again, the more we test support the thinner the ice gets. There are only so many buyers at this level. Fear is still running rampant, which is simultaneously a good and bad sign.

In three weeks I think we'll be trading between $40k-$45k given the bullish scenario. At some point we will have to dip back down to test support. Assuming the bullish outcome, it makes the most sense that we would be rejected at the $45k level due to that daunting resistance line caused by the last two local peaks at $64k and $59k.

The bearish outlook is a lot simpler than that. If we can't hold the line at $30k I'll be getting mentally prepared for $20k. Simple as that. When Bitcoin bull markets run out of steam they always return to the doubling curve, and we are only a 35% drop away from that epic support line. Again, I'm almost hoping this happens because I will be comfortable going long again. Even without going short or selling spot before the crash, I think I can make more money long term if the price crashes back to the curve fully.

2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve

Let this be a lesson to all.

I've been talking about this curve and how Bitcoin has been doubling every year for quite some time now. Buy when the price hits the curve. It's not hard. When BTC was trading at $60k I reminded everyone of this and I was immediately blown off by all the rampaging FOMO. Suddenly Bitcoin was more than doubling in value because reasons. Yes, well, it isn't. Get over it.

At the same time we only got a regular bull run (x3 the curve). We were expecting an x10 mega-bull run due to the four year cycle. So I would be pretty surprised if this $30k support didn't hold. It would be disappointing in the short term, to be sure, but when one door closes another opens.

August target

At this point I'll be looking at August as a pinnacle month because June was so muted. That should be more than enough time to ramp up from here and hit another local peak. However, once the summer is over the economy has a way of crashing back to earth. Vacation is over. Kids are going back to school. The money splurges end and everyone seems to tighten their wallets. No matter what happens I'll be looking to take some off the table in hopes of buying in cheaper during September, as that often seems to be a great time to buy.

Now that BTC is regaining dominance my favorite tokens are back on sale. Kudos to CUB for only dropping 4% during this dip. Any alt that drops less than granddaddy Bitcoin is a noteworthy victory. Especially true considering how much we've bled already on that front after making a short but sweet comeback.

Unfortunately I'm way overextended on my CUB investment, so I'm really looking to accumulate more Hive/LEO at this time. Luckily, a lot of that locked value exists as BNB, bLEO, and bUSD, making my exposure less risky. Still, Hive at 25 cents and LEO at 20 cents are extreme buy signals for me personally. It's a shame I have to save money for a few months or I'd be dipping my toes back in. Silver lining: at least the yields are high and I can continue to compound those gains.

Conclusion

A lot of people are quite disillusioned with the state of the market right now. Personally I won't even begin to start sweating it until we crash below $30k. We are in the exact same consolidation range as we were during the beginning of the year, and I interpret that as a good sign that this run still has some momentum left in it. The next week of price action is going to be very telling no matter what happens. Onward and upward!

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