Yesterday we got the green light from the man, myth, and legend himself for number to go up, but today we get another 5%-10% bleed across the crypto markets. Very sad. In fact Bitcoin itself seems to be forging a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern which would end up taking us down to $31k or below if it plays out and completes the pattern. This has been my buying target for quite some time so I feel like there's a pretty significant chance of it happening due to other analysis factors that I've been over a couple times already.
Annoyingly enough this implies that Hive retesting the local low of 25 cents is also very much on the table. This wouldn't be so bad if the chance for V-shaped recoveries was high, but the 3rd year in the cycle can be so mind-numbingly boring, especially during the first half. I continue to mentally prepare myself for 9 months of crabwalking in range, which is often the most difficult type of market to endure.
The thrill of losing.
This is a concept that also very much applies to poker and all forms of gambling. Breaking even for a long time puts us into an agitated and tilted state where we'd rather something exciting happened, even if that means we lose money. The action junkies and degenerates come to ride the roller coaster of emotion, and while many claim to hate losing, they fail to recognize that it also makes winning all that much sweeter. Yin and Yang are a pair for a reason. A boring market can make us do stupid things and increase risk in ways that we would never dream of otherwise. Try not to fall into that classic trap.
The usual metrics.
Bitcoin has been in an upward trajectory since the end of 2022, which is very much in line with the traditional 4 year cycle. Even a crash to $31k doesn't change that. That's still x2 higher than BTC was a year ago. The difference this time around is that the exponential trendlines still towers above the market. Does this mean that the trendlines no longer apply because they were blatantly unsustainable? Or does it simply mean that we will bounce back stronger than ever during the 2025 bull market year within the cycle? It's still unclear, but I never bet on "this time is different". The halving, spot ETFs, and a FED pivot can all stack atop each other over the next year to create a wicked snowball with a lot of momentum. But that's a year away and I'm not living in the future yet.
The economy is doing great.
Let me rephrase that: the economy is doing great for the top 1%. If we measure a successful economy by a thriving middle class then the economy is a complete shitshow, but then again the middle class has been dwindling since long before everyone was complaining about high prices. The transference of wealth over the past decade has been a thing of legend. The average person is losing their economic worth in the face of automation and centralized technology. Point being that the economy can look like garbage but the markets can still go up. After all, the markets are controlled by whales and the whales are doing just fine.
Although it is worth noting that the narrative for the current dump stems from an apparent 8.3% on the CPI report. "Inflation" it would seem, is not under control after all. That puts the FED is a pretty awkward situation considering they know they are going to break something if they keep hiking rates. Be prepared for fuckery and nothing will surprise us.
Shifting focus
It can be quite difficult to emotionally divorce ourselves from a bleeding portfolio, but in times like these that's exactly what we should be doing. Why fret about things that are beyond our control when we could put focus on important things that actually make a difference? Death smiles at us all; all we can do is smile back.
As for me I'm begun to get back into the coding game and brush up on my Javascript, which has been a nice change of pace. Been thinking a lot about tokenomics and how to create more balanced DEFI systems that aren't doomed to crash to zero like so many networks before them. It will be very interesting to see how helpful the new infrastructure that Hive is building turns out to be (HAF/VSC). Until then, keep grinding.
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