Right about now would be the time that I admitted that my predictions were wrong, yet again. However, this time I'd say I'm still pretty much 90% right. And when you're talking about gambling, you only need to be 60% right on average to be an expert professional.

Everything is looking good and right on track.

No Dip November

However, my personal prediction is targeting the $17k level for November. Sounds like a lot, but that's less than a 25% gain from where we are today.

Considering we're currently trading at $16925 as I type this sentence, I'd say I'm doing pretty good so far. If another dip hits and we get the full 30% retracement... even then we might be in a good spot for a December run. So far we've only dipped 17%... still not enough to make much of a decent profit or justify gambling on the market.

Lucky Number 7 (November 19th)

Instead, what we are seeing today is the market simply threatening a dump. "Don't pump me bro, I will dump on you." However, as I have already stated a dozen times, there will be no dip. No dip November strong. The market is scared enough to listen to the market and not pump higher from here.

Heh yeah... well...

The market didn't listen, did it? It pumped higher than $17,777, to $19500. And what happened then? The market dumped... what a surprise... !

Conclusion

If this was the end of the local bull run, that would actually be great. That would make 2016 almost identical to 2020. We skimmed all time highs in Q4, we'll return to the doubling curve at $14k in January or $15k in Feb, then we'd essentially get pump/dumps every quarter in an upward direction until capping out around $250k-$300k in Q4 2021. We can only hope it will be that easy to trade this market.

However, I think the more likely scenario is that the 2021 bull run will not look the same as the 2017 one. We haven't had a real bull run for 18 months and the market is embracing hardcore institutional adoption.

December has the highest money velocity of any month out of the year due to Christmas, Q4 corporate surplus, kids out of school, vacations, and all that. Certainly, COVID lockdowns and crippling debt could completely muffle out next month but then again it's not retail we are looking to in order to pump these bags. Whether we like it or not, our enemy has finally figured out it is more profitable to embrace this abundance technology than to try and play this silly game of whack-a-mole.

2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve

Again, for me, it all comes down to the doubling curve. The rule is simple. Buy when the price of Bitcoin actually hits the curve. Doesn't matter when it happens. If the price goes under the curve like it did in March from COVID that's just free money leverage trading time.

Again, I think November is just the pre-pump pump. This silly little 17% retracement puts us back on track exactly to the level I said we'd be on November 1st.

If December bubbles up like I think it will, that will completely change the mega-bull run landscape of 2021. It will probably take 6 months for a big run up to the $40k-$60k range to deflate, meaning instead of getting a nice pump this summer like we did in 2017 it would just be a dump back to the doubling curve. Should be interesting no matter what happens.

I continue to look for extreme market instability and a volcano eruption blow off top. The market hasn't even come close to doing that yet. You'll know it when trading volume is insane and there's a $50 gap between buyers and sellers on big exchanges as the price washes back and forth hundreds of dollars within seconds.

At the same time, if this hasn't happened by Jan 20th then it's just not going to happen until the big one hits a year from now. Keep an eye on the market. It is constantly whispering its incoherent secrets.

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