So last night I impulsively started a powerdown on LEO. Not because I wanted to go bearish on LEO, but because I wanted to go bearish on ETH. Seems like all we have left now are the diehard holders and the people FOMOing for this upcoming airdrop.
So because I'm somewhat bearish on ETH in the short term I felt like I needed to sell LEO. Truth be told, we are so linked at the hip to ETH now that I kinda feel like I don't even need to hold ETH... and if I do I should just shove liquidity into the Uniswap pool and use it to farm.
I woke up this morning and canceled my powerdown... no longer in freakout mode and I didn't like seeing my vote strength get nerfed by 25% in an instant. The inflation that we control with powered up stake is pretty massive and impressive if I'm being honest. Especially considering that this inflation doesn't seem to get dumped on the market. Everyone wants a piece of LEO it seems.
So I've been thinking about all the crazy stuff I've been talking about lately, and I realized something that's pretty messed up:
War and Terror are good for the markets right now.
I'll admit I was a bit confused when the market was spiking as "domestic terrorists" "raided" the capitol. Why would that kind of uncertainty present that kind of response in the market? That's exactly the kind of thing I wanted to hedge against, and the market went into the opposite direction than I expected it would (up).
That's because the chance of actual insurrection on Jan 6th was 0%. There was no uncertainty. There was a 0% chance that Trump was going to coup the presidency over that event happening. But the interesting thing here is that many people somehow think this was a possible outcome, and now we need to trade our freedoms for security to protect the greater good.
And all the fear that's being generated right now, empty or otherwise, is great for the market, because Patriot Act Surveillance State 2.0 seems to be rolling out soon, and the people at the top stand to profit from that development.
So the next time some crazy shit happens and the market goes up instead of down, we'll know it's because that's exactly what the big-money players wanted. They want people scared and willing to accept this New Normal. Hell, they say it to our faces. The New Normal is coming. Get ready to accept it! Even Conan the Barbarian says we should support Biden no matter what!
I just now walked into the other room and some political nonsense is on the TV. I immediately heard the word "insurrection".
They are really milking this thing for all it's got, aren't they?
Why you jealous of my freedom, bro?
Seems like we've figured out the rules for lockdown pretty good: all the big business get to stay open out of necessity and small business remains under constant attack. You know how I always talk about tax/debt/wage slavery? Well apparently they don't like small business owners trying to compete while avoiding the wages part of that equation. Shutter your doors forever and go to work for the big boys like everyone else! Climb that corporate ladder!
Gross...
A corporation is a large-scale entity that creates automation using people as the robots. Things are going to get very awkward around here when the actual robots take over. First with driving and delivery, then with construction, production, logistics, and whatever else.
Unemployment is kind of like a traffic jam on the freeway... If there are 25% too many cars on the road then throughput grinds to a screeching halt. Well, the same thing is true with an economy at 25% unemployed, velocity of money will crumble. Is it really so silly to assume that this is exactly what's going to happen sometime in the next decade? I think not.
The Displacement is real.
You might even say "Disruption". Such blasphemy to say the word when it doesn't apply to crypto, amirite?
As far as Bitcoin is concerned...
I got some good advice to step back and think more long term: which provided me the following conclusion: If this pattern does indeed play out we should be at $30k for quite some time (2-3 months) before volume drops off a cliff and we crash to $20k around late March.
Then again, if I'm wrong, we're probably still in a bull market during the mega-bubble year... wouldn't that be something? Gogo $300k!
Panic trading need not apply
And what if something crazy happens concerning this election or the economy or COVID or...??? After seeing what happened on Jan 6th, there seems to be just as good a chance of such an event actually being bullish for the market rather than bearish. Pretty sad when you think about it.
Turns out war, fear, and ultimate control can end up being quite profitable for some. Seems like people are being farmed just as savagely as the animals we buy from the store. True story.
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