https://img.inleo.io/DQmVeG3Pr42UGvPWrwtuwPdjJ7V3EkZ1bwLLG2cU36RbNER/head-shoulders-knees-toes.jpg
Winning all my day trades!
Another day of blood, another day that my margin account grows larger. Not by much... but I'm chipping away at every gain I can find. It feels nice because I'll be able to pay my rent and bills with gamble gamble money instead of selling Hive or anything like that. I really think by the time we get to the bottom of this pit that alts are going to be wildly oversold... and I'll likely have to rotate some Bitcoin into my Hive & Rune bags.
A short story of my recent exploits: link
https://img.inleo.io/DQmQZuoQZvuss4unB3MPezgmPSdewvJhXYsN6pqMffxzL9W/image.png
Some bullish traders would have interpreted these moments as as BTC catching support. I did not. The 50% dead bounce from $74k to $64k to $69k was a terrible terrible sign. Support near $67k was already known to be weak. Was only a matter of time before the ice cracked and we fell in, and fall we did.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmTeyvEBEHmMeCEBqqvkkzvQFjimGnZcAKyiEUX78m5Ucv/image.png
10 PM last night
Went to bed knowing it wasn't going to look pretty in the morning. Shorts are still open. Take profit set to $62k just in case I get THAT lucky.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmeZGAgc4PhPfBC59eWCYHqiffbYnnxG5RebwhQJ2YCjaN/image.png
This morning I wake up around 07:20 EST and see that we are actually testing the dashed-red line as support... which is insane. This was the previous resistance from a few days back that crushed the market a few times as it moved from the Head of the pattern to the Shoulders. I made some good trades there was well but that's old news.
I closed my BTC and BSV shorts here up something like +$440.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmacGmqqr3c2vYH6v1m8sXiS6FFTra5S2U9VF3AU6KYCSw/image.png
Almost immediately after closing my shorts I decided the market was offering me a crazy good opportunity to flip long until we got close to the orange line. I did not quite expect what happened next.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmVfkeaxmfNeLcZogfL5sdcLB4BLB7AVgDuJCt8H7Vumg1/image.png
We spiked up to the orange line WAY faster than I thought we would. Again this is exactly a 50% dead cat bounce from $69k to $62k to $65.5k. So many dead bounces... hugely bearish.
The price was going up so fast that I threw in a couple of x100 short bets to hedge my position against any downswings... but they all got liquidated and I was pretty annoyed about it. Lost $20 per bet, but after everything was said and done the long closed up $300... so I'm up $740 on the day.
Pretty good... especially considering that I risked much less than this. My stop losses are setup in a way where an $80 bet can only lose $80 but can make $300 if the market moves in my favor... which it keeps doing over and over again.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmVXAePcfahCCTYSSe2oFKZEjZmyWj7uDKurzUbhAqQ63v/nice-american-psycho-bale.jpg
My day trading has been wildly successful as of late based on a few assumptions that keep being proven true:
- It was going to take around 3 weeks (minus a weekend) to reach the peak after we started pumping on Feb 26.
- It's a bearish head and shoulders pattern.
- April's halving event is overhyped to the moon and will at least be bearish enough to get us a V-shaped dip (or bottom grinding support). We crash after halving when the market realizes that nothing magical happened.
- It takes around one month before a fundamentally bullish event for the speculators to peak the market like degenerates.
- $58k was a key price point that we blew past in 15 minutes. We need to return to this level one last time and kiss it goodbye.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmSC4vNMDvagLp5t6d6AVdR2Ap8mA2oQiA5W8zqS5iBjmU/image.png
The halving dip is nothing new
It happens all the time. This time is not different. https://img.inleo.io/DQmY8956vyJdun2c7CoQZ31vWwP8JYD4tkym1yposyBnByE/image.png
So what's next?
When we zoom out we can see that this stepladder could go a bit lower, but I personally don't think we can get back to $50k unless it's a quick wick down to wipe out all the overleveraged longs into an immediate recovery. The reason why I don't think we can roundtrip on this one is that the ETFs have quite simply picked up too much BTC. It would make zero sense that they could acquire this much and not push the floor up at least a bit. That's why a lot of my money is centered around $58k.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmbrpnz8Kg2bwoCqP9KmB1vTM4nC1bvdwAFqLhmBKKgBwR/image.png
Drawing a line back to 2021 reveals that $58k was an insanely pinnacle price point during the last bull market. The problem? We blew right past it in 15 minutes this time around. There is a Bitcoin community called the $58k Gang that was very disappointed to see this happen. We need to close the gap. A lot of these hardcore Bitcoiners and traders will be moving in the support this level.
$58k will be a great place to set a bear trap and buy up all the Bitcoin being sold by tunnel vision day traders and ETF holders that just got wrecked during the 20% downswing. But that's really all it is: a 20% dip. 30% from $74k would be $52k, so again it wouldn't be surprising to see the overleverage longs get wiped out at some point with a quick poop-and-scoop next month.
What about the bullish scenario?
First of all the move I just described above is a bullish scenario. A 20% dip is nothing. Normally summer would bearish after such a bullish Q1, but I still very much believe we are in a hyper-bullish macro setting until 2025.
That being said the price is currently trading around the 25-day moving average as I write these words, so if a bullish trend was about to happen it could be now. I personally can't bet on anything like that happening. Any price point under $69k is temporarily bearish until we flush out all the weak hands (hopefully between $62k and $58k). We need to crush the dreams of these halving maniacs before we can move up.
x5 long at $58k?
It's unclear if bears will be able to nuke the leverage at $58k and create a chain reaction selloff of BTC that wicks into the $50k-$52k range. High leverage during this time is going to be quite risky, but even an x5 would have a liquidation of $46.4k which I don't believe can get triggered within these market conditions. I might even be willing to bet my whole margin account on it when the time comes. We'll see.
What about Hive?
Hive is wildly oversold at a rank #370 position on Coingecko. Rune will likely be oversold as well but not as much. I plan on acquiring both at the end of April, which is often a good time to buy anyway even without all these keen market conditions that make it even better in a climate like the one we find ourselves in. https://img.inleo.io/DQmPoo3PMGPef3mAf5n7UFcD8YLEmPVKEtnQLxyu42D8qUj/image.png
Biggest outflows of any ETF in 15 years.
Some are blaming this dip on Grayscale outflows. I'm not sure if I buy that, but it is a relevant narrative considering how much BTC they've bled out. It looks like they are in the capitulation phase and telling their clients they'll lower fees soon™.
Again, I'm not so sure this narrative has any basis in reality because where are those outflows going? Shouldn't the expectation obviously be that they are flowing into the other ETFs? The logic being employed here seems foolish to me on a certain level, but I surely can't ignore it entirely.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmW2FHPBBGVtmaZ7KCgS33TXnKBmFy1W4kTUFxJUSRrMBx/image.png
BitMex Fat Finger
BITMEX GOT WRECKED! Some whale (bot?) accidentally dumped the price of BTC down to 4 figures on this platform. Wow... I hope whoever bought the dip on that one is a happy camper. Yikes.
Year of the narrative
- Year of the bull.
- Year of the bear.
- Year of the maximalist (Bitcoin only)
- Year of the new narrative (shitcoin casino).
It's a four year cycle, and the year of the new narrative is in full swing. 2024 is an altmarket year in which making rotations from BTC into alts can pay off big. Of course this time around the new narrative is actually the old narrative. VCs and whoever else have pumped so much money into Solana that memecoins are running rampant all over again. It's pure lunacy.
On top of this, vaporware AI tokens are also mooning, but I haven't really been paying attention to any of those so I can't speak to them as much. On the actual side of fundamentals, DEXes have clearly caught a bid because of all the regulatory overreach caused by the fallout of FTX, 3AC, and UST. This is one of the many reasons I'm so bullish on RUNE (THORChain) and CACAO (Maya). This rally has only just begun, and the end of this year will likely be even more bonkers. Best to get in now while the getting is good.
Conclusion
April is still bearish in my opinion, but we've crashed so hard and fast there's a pretty good chance we see a bullish trend pop up even if it's just for a week or two before the halving event. Once the halving event actually happens it will be a disappointment... as always... and I'll be ready to move all in and go long once more. More on these developments when they occur. Until then hold on for dear life. This storm is quite unforgiving.
https://img.inleo.io/DQmNzaNgJ11CxCyZGf3qTqfdw6d84BYXn6jdt3TztR222o6/image.png
https://img.inleo.io/DQmWut66XB6NihXyPqePamanYC3r9MqgZDKzd8vkhj9qZd5/image.png
Return from Q1 2024: Head & Shoulders Completed to edicted's Web3 Blog
