The deadline to appeal the Grayscale victory has come and gone.
Friday the 13th was quite uneventful. The day of Jihad was quietly ignored by the world.
Many on Twitter have 'taken to the streets' as it were and declared victory over the regulators. I'm not sure why. Seems like everyone has already forgotten what this win in court actually means. All it means is that the SEC's reason for declining the application was unlawful. They can still decline the application for some other unlawful reason and play the obstructionist game. Will this actually happen? I don't know I'd say it's at least a coinflip in our favor.
What was the reasoning again?
The SEC has declined every single BTC spot application on the grounds that the market is too easily manipulated. However, this excuse can no longer be used due to the crypto victory in court. So not only would the SEC have to find another excuse to decline the application again, but they'd also have to come up with one that made sense within the context of futures ETFs being approved. They'd also need to apply this excuse to all other applications as well. This essentially might be an impossible task on a legal level.
However, they can still just give another totally illegal and irrelevant reason to decline the application. This would mean Grayscale would need to go to court once again, and they would win, but does it matter? The SEC can technically play this obstructionist game until the courts dismiss the case with prejudice and force the SEC to approve the ETF. Theoretically something like that could take years given the worst case scenario. However it would not be surprising if it happened on the very next case considering the damning judgment that came down in late August.
Do I think that can happen?
I mean I don't expect a worst case scenario to play out simply because Blackrock and Fidelity are in the mix also demanding a place at the table. There's simply too much force behind this movement for it to be delayed longer than a year or two, and the probability of getting approval in early January seems quite high.
Notice how the market has not responded at all.
Crypto degens see the lack of appeal as a huge win and an ETF is already approved. Clearly the market does not agree or we would have seen a 30%+ pump today. The market knows it can no longer price in this event and simply has to wait for the regulator obstruction to conclude before pulling the trigger.
At the same time Blackrock is buying. Paypal is buying. Fidelity is buying. Ark is buying. Microstrategy is buying. Many other institutions are buying.
The market is hilariously oversold because the legacy economy is in shambles, but the institutional interest creates an invisible floor on Bitcoin that basically can't be cracked at this point. Where is this floor? I'm guessing something like $20k, but it could be as high as $25k considering we double bottomed there quite definitively. Every $1000 drop in price comes with massive buying pressure. All the biggest bears are targeting $16k or even $10k. If everyone wants to buy at a certain level the price can never get there. It is known.
The number of coins on exchanges is declining quickly and the number of those tokens that are actually for sale is even lower. The spot market for BTC is clearly decoupled from stocks and other legacy assets. Even safe assets like bonds are considered a lot less safe this day in age with debt markets spiraling out of control. All the places people would normally go during times of uncertainty are getting more risky, which means a small percentage of money should trickle into Bitcoin because of these creeping systemic threats to the legacy system.
If we look at the charts year over year November is clearly the most volatile month out there. So either we are about to go way up or about to go way down. Which way will the market go? The answer is... yes!
Return from SEC opts to decline appeal on Grayscale defeat. to edicted's Web3 Blog
