Alright, we did it!
Time to cash out, amirite? I mean look at the chart! We're in that classic 3rd year of the four year cycle in which everyone has hope that we hit all time highs early, and yet every time without fail we have to wait it out another year before we get to the fabled fourth year.
- 2013
- 2017
- 2021
- 2025
Like clockwork!
Or we can just ignore all that and keep grinding forward. Trying to trade the market at this moment in time is extremely difficult. The damn chart is parabolic at this point. Don't forget that almost exactly a year ago we were trading at $16k. How crazy is that? At this point a 30% dip would be welcome just so the 'buy the dip' boys come back and we actually get some higher volume.
Speaking of volume.
It's still extremely low. Suspiciously low in fact. This is one the big reasons that I believe that the market can still go up despite being on a +187% tear over the last 12 months. We aren't even close to a blow-off top. Volume needs to go at least x3-x5 higher to get into the normal blow-off top range, and even that would just be matching the volume we got during the bear market, not something befitting of institutional adoption.
Nah bruv, it's priced in.
There are many who claim that the ETF approval can't be priced in because inflows will simply be too high. I hope at this point everyone knows better than this, especially considering the current price action. Obviously number hasn't gone down (yet) but it also hasn't gone up. So where are all those people looking to "frontrun institutional adoption"? Everything is confirmed and good to go. What's the holdup?
I'm on record as saying ETF approval was not the news to sell, but rather opening the doors on trading day. Unfortunately I didn't think they'd be opening the doors immediately on approval. I guess I should of seen that coming but I thought there'd be a least a week in between the two. The fact that this market hasn't spiked up instantly definitely does allude to the speculators being a bit tapped out.
Bakkt 2.0?
The summer 2019 rally was also fueled by the promise of institutional adoption. Do these spot ETFs even matter? It's a valid question. Anyone who really wants to get exposure to BTC can easily do it through the non-spot futures ETFs or even through buying stock like MSTR. The only advantage of the spot ETF is that the peg won't break horrifically like it did with Grayscale. First it was 30% above the peg then 30% below. Pretty terrible honestly.
Two other sell-the-news events.
There are a couple other macro reasons why number could go up as well. A fed pivot and the halving event. Of course both of these events are also double-edged swords, just like institutional adoption. A fed pivot often starts with a dip that crushes the market and doesn't spike to the moon until rates are bottomed and easy money floods the system. The halving event takes a full year to create real fundamental supply crunch so only speculation can carry it before that.
No matter what happens we are almost certainly due for at least one 30% dip over the next couple months. Not that it matters. It can't be timed. Peaks are notoriously impossible to get right. It's much easier to wait for the dip and buy it than to try and sell into a pamp. #buythedip
What does Hive usually do?
Unfortunately Hive beats to its own drum and normally lags behind in the 3rd year. Very sad. Of course we all HOPE this doesn't happen this time around, but the lag is already real and it's hard to ignore. We very well may trade sideways for an entire year while the rest of the market moves up. This is always a painful time to be loyal to this network, but it is what it is. Something to be aware of, as moments like that can also be a blessing in disguise for anyone looking to stack up. It's always darkest before the dawn.
3rd year == Shitcoin Casino
What's the new narrative for the next bull run? It still hasn't revealed itself. 2016 was ICOs. 2020 was NFTs into DEFI. What ridiculous template will 2024 present us? No matter what it is I guarantee it will be absolutely irrational and nonsensical.
Conclusion
The ETF got approved. Now what? Is the party over? Should we cash out our chips now before the music stops? Or is this all just a big nothing burger that doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things.
Crypto is infrastructure. The infrastructure of the future. It should be no surprise that it's starting to get adoption, and yet many say that this kind of adoption is bad. It's not good or bad; it just is.
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