Wait... or is this the Bad Place?
Ah we'll figure it out eventually.
So I haven't look at the markets in a while. Got slapped down at $25k resistance and now flirting with the local lows. It's like the groundhog saw its shadow: x more weeks of winter!
To be fair the legacy economy is doing really bad, and the energy crisis is only primed to get worse at the end of the year. Will that finally be the thing that forces a rock-bottom scrape? Who knows?
Trading crypto during this time is basically impossible. Crypto moves faster than the legacy economy. By the time stocks and whatever else are bottoming out crypto very well may be heading into a bull market again. Probably just wishful thinking though. At best we can probably hope to trade flat while this trainwreck plays out.
We've recently gotten more and more bad news in the economic metric department. FOMC meeting in two weeks. Everyone already knows they are going to raise rates again. How much is a subject of debate. Real-estate looks bad. Import/Exporting data looks bad. Sanctions against Russia are crushing the European economy with weaponized energy trading.
Wen moon?
By all accounts it looks like a lot of this bad news is already fully priced in, and by the time the FOMC meeting happens and interest rates are increased again (bearish) it will ironically bounce the market upward just like it did last time. Selling the rumor and buying the news.
Still, with the economy performing so poorly, any move up needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. This slow-moving train wreck of an economy has been derailed for over two years and still hasn't crashed into the mountain yet. Would be nice to just rip the baidaid off and get it over with but alas, that's not how it works.
Hive eh?
The current HIVE/USDT chart doesn't look that great, but not terrible. We recently got a mini death-cross in which MA(25) moved under MA(50). Price unsurprisingly hasn't been doing great over the last few days. Still, if we can hold support at 50 cents I'm going to call that a win.
The last time BTC was trading under $20k Hive was trading at 30 cents. Remember how much that sucked? Now BTC is back in that terrifying range and Hive is at 50 cents. Hot damn... what an upgrade. What does the HIVE/BTC chart have to say?
Wow... for real?
The HIVE/BTC looks amazing. Hyperbullish even when compared to the top dog. Every golden cross has gone through, with the biggest one happening a week ago with the MA(100) crossing above MA(200). And the current spot-trading price is above all four moving averages... which again is super super bullish. I don't think I've ever seen Hive in such a definitively bullish place against BTC. Pretty wild. Makes we want to buy some more. Good times.
I think this also really shows just how decoupled Hive has become from Bitcoin, which is a really good sign. We need a decentralized robust environment, not hundreds of coins all trading on the same up and down cycles as BTC.
As long as Bitcoin doesn't shit the bed and doesn't start making new local lows I'd say we are in a pretty good place. Hard to complain at the moment considering the circumstances. Hive is slowly creeping up the market cap. Wasn't so long ago that getting into the top 200 was deemed an accomplishment. Now it's the standard. That's crypto for ya. Wen top 10?
It's a bit lame to toot your own horn, but Hive is in a really good spot on the tech side. At a certain point regulators are going to get extremely overbearing and aggressive, and many of the centralized entities that keep their tokens propped up are going to bail after taking all those arrows to the chest.
Hive has already been through the ringer a dozen times. This is an extremely antifragile network and many of the centralized attack vectors have been plugged or cut away entirely. This is something that will continue going unnoticed until other networks start going under from the strain of their own centralization. If that was going to happen to Hive it would of already happened during our darkest hours. Feels nice to be past all that.
HBD and algo stable-coins are of particular interest. How many other stable coins are rocking 20% rates? Our biggest competition crashed to zero right when things were getting interesting. Bear markets wash away everything that can't stand on its own. It's all part of the boom and bust cycle. At the end of the day if HBD ends up being the only algo stable coin that regulators can't control, people are going to take notice.
Speaking of being ignored...
In the context of WEB3 and social media, Hive still never gets talked about. It's truly mindblowing at this point. Like, there aren't better options out there. Everyone is trying to reinvent the wheel and scoop the gains for themselves. That tactic isn't going to work. Decentralization and community building is a decade-long grind. At this stage in the game it's not really possible to overtake Hive and what we have going here.
What does Hive have going for it, anyway?
We were told that DPOS would never work because of the money attack. Then we were money attacked, and we not only survived the attack, but profited from it and forked out our most egregious centralized attack vectors.
We were told that DPOS and coin voting would lead to centralization. Again, false. Welcome to the real world, theory-crafters. The system we have is doing the opposite. The coin distribution is getting better, not worse. Even more importantly, many toxic whales and untrustworthy stakeholders dumped all their tokens and left, allowing the real diehards like myself to scoop up coins for ten cents a pop back in 2020.
It's important to remember why decentralization matters in the first place. It's all about trust. Who-controls-what, matters. More trustworthy people with stake in their hands is a win no matter how centralized that distribution becomes. Turns out that's not even something we have to worry about. Every upvote that isn't a self-upvote increases distribution in a healthy way. Again, this isn't something that another network can copy. It takes years for these networking connections to be made and upkept for it to actually develop into a healthy ecosystem.
Hive yield-farms bandwidth.
How many other networks give you free bandwidth for staking the governance token? Sure, there are a few out there. Not many though. It's a small niche. There are many small niches on Hive like this that can't be found on other networks. Better to specialize and be good at a few things than try to do everything and get trapped in a scaling death-spiral.
We've got a nice hardfork on the horizon. Arguably our most important one yet. The ability to delegate the bandwidth we yield farm will make it much easier to onboard new users in a scalable way. It will also allow a new derivative to be created assuming our bandwidth (RCs) are one day worth actual money. Don't be surprised when powering up Hive allows one to farm multiple assets at the same time. How many other networks do that?
Not to mention the near-instant block irreversibility upgrade on top of Hive Application Framework and the development of smart contracts and the second layer. It's a slow burn, but it's all coming together.
How many other networks were broke as shit and had to work for years just to make everything cheaper and more efficient to run? Nope, most of the coins in the top caps are subsidized by VCs and whoever else from the top-down, centralizing everything and tricking people into thinking they are legitimate. Go look at how things like Metamask and NFT platforms work. Totally centralized connected to a single server. We all saw what happened with LUNA. One day it's at the top of the world, then zero. Unfortunately, that won't be the last time. Only antifragile networks can survive the onslaught.
Even it a network doesn't crash to zero outright, is it really better to have it controlled by the same corrupted institutions we were trying to get away from in the first place? One could argue that this is even worse because it creates a very dangerous false sense of security. Who cares as long as number goes up, amirite? Yes well if a centralized agent freezes all of your assets it doesn't really matter how high the number goes, does it?
There are so many tokens out there that are completely and utterly unilaterally controlled by a single centralized agent, and nobody cares because that threat hasn't revealed itself for what it is, yet. Every single DEFI project on EVM is essentially an illegitimate centralized project in this regard (as far as I know). There are only a few diamonds out there as far as I can tell. Hive is one of them. Bitcoin is the obvious one. General computing networks like Ethereum? Maybe. If anything Ethereum will make a great testnet for projects that will eventually migrate to their own chain or the second layer.
Conclusion
When it comes to the markets, we very well may be in for another year of pain. Of course trading flat for a year is also considered painful and boring in crypto. Insert do_something meme here. Still, I'm pretty optimistic about the future and crypto in general. This floundering economy full of weaponized incompetence and corrupted institutions is the exact reason why blockchain exists in the first place. If I have to wait a bit longer to get where I want to go, so be it. Until then we can keep our heads down and continue grinding.
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Return from Somehow Hive Appears to be in The Good Place. to edicted's Web3 Blog
