The year of the maximalist is not disappointing, and Bitcoin continues to smash resistance around $30k in spite of an expected pullback. Perhaps BTC simply has too much momentum to reconfirm $25k as support, but somehow I doubt it. Then again I'm never right so there is that.
As soon as priced tapped MA(25) it rocketed more. Wow...
Now that we are sneaking above the $29k line I'm starting to get some major FOMO on Bitcoin.
The chart has been looking absurdly strong for months now. The moving averages have gone into full-on fan-out mode which is what we see during every single rally. Remember when I was saying for months that a crash to $20k would still be the bullish scenario? Yeah well that's exactly what happened, and now it's more like $25k, which coincidentally is right where the MA(50) resides ATM.
Of course such a small move isn't even worth trying to trade as we head into potential summer insanity. Can only get wrecked trying to trade any of this. The only trade I'm making is scraping together any token I an justify selling to get more BTC. Not a fun adventure let me tell you... especially considering it is something I should have done over a year ago during the bull market.
Of course my biggest bag is Hive
And let's be honest it probably always will be. I expect Hive to outperform Bitcoin in the long term, but BTC is crushing the short and mid term right now no doubt about that. I always like to try my hand at volatility trading the BTC/HIVE market. Buy low sell high... that kind of thing. Sounds so simple eh?
Essentially Hive is trading at local lows against the Big Dawg right now. Is this a show of weakness, or is our tiny network just biding its time until another ridiculous illiquid pump? Speaking of liquidity: I'm still perpetually grateful for how much liquidity the HBD/Hive market has these days. Just another reason to be bullish on Hive I suppose, and there are many reasons.
Narrowing bands
The average price of Hive hasn't been this stable for a very very long time. All the moving averages are within the range of 40-42 cents with the spot price trading at the top of that range. We've all seen this type of calm-before-the-storm-before. Expect major volatility in the coming weeks. Moments like this don't last for long. When people realize a token has a stable base, that's ironically the moment that the coin becomes unstable and needs to regain footing somewhere else.
Looking back at the chart history I'm trying to find another narrow band like this, and it actually doesn't even exist. This kind of stability on Hive is unheard of, and we can see that there is a wedge of sorts in play with the price oscillating in the middle of it all. Closest we had to this kind of price action was during that time we hit rock bottom around the 10-13 cent range back in 2020. However, even then the chart was littered with 40% pump/dumps and the MA(200) didn't even exist because the Hive brand hadn't even been operational for 200 days during that moment in history. Again, Hive's price action right now is more stable and non-comparable to its previous history than it ever has been. Pretty bullish.
So why's Hive so exciting these days?
Well, like Bitcoin, the narrative of extreme regulatory overreach can really only benefit the networks that can't be regulated from the outside. After all the entire point of crypto is to be self-regulating. That is the literal definition of consensus: governance & sovereignty.
Bitcoin is going to do very well in this environment, and Hive is going to do well also for a completely different subset of reasons. This is really great because if we hold both BTC and HIVE we can capitalize on the best of both worlds.
Yield farming bandwidth is still grossly underestimated.
How many people in crypto even use the phrase "yield farming bandwidth"? As far as I know I'm the one who coined that term, lol. Nobody says it. Nobody talks about it. Bandwidth as a derivative is going way way way under the radar.
This is frustrating in the short to mid term because we know we have something great here and we want validation from the outside world. However, it looks like we are going to have to force our hand and wrangle the attention economy the hard way. This will make our victory only the sweeter when people realize what a good alternative it is to guarantee bandwidth to stakeholders of the main governance token.
From a developer perspective, Hive is fabulously wealthy.
I get into a lot of conversations about Hive with people who don't have this perspective. Sometimes we get into a disagreement and I understand the argument perfectly, but it's only valid if you come at it from the angle that Hive is and will only ever be a weird blogging platform with voting mechanics.
To most, a comment on Hive is just that: a verbal interaction between parties that may or may not get voted on and allocated rewards. Hive will eventually transcend this mindset, with comments instead simply being a declaration that work has been done. Generically, this could mean many many things, from developing a skin in a video game to organizing infrastructure in the real world.
When I see what Hive can actually do on a technical level compared to things like Bitcoin and Ethereum I get very excited about the future of this network. The scaling debacle will be solved, and judging by the way we are doing business around here we will be on the bleeding edge of that accomplishment along with a handful of others who are also grinding away.
Hive also has superior security to BTC in a lot of ways.
Readable names and reputations as public keys are clutch. OWNER/ACTIVE/POSTING/MEMO tiered authority is clutch. Account recovery is clutch. On & off chain encrypted communication is clutch. We already talked about yield farmed bandwidth. Hive is the original DEFI token. We've been allocating yields for longer than anyone else. Not only that: we allocate yields intelligently instead of it just being stake-weighted like everything else on EVM. Anyone can earn Hive without having to make an investment of money. That alone makes it 'not a security'.
Conclusion
Winter has ended, and summer is coming. The regulators are going full throttle, but their attacks against the space seem to have extreme diminishing returns. The world seems to understand that crypto is the long-term solution to the rampant corruption in finance. This in combination of the market already being oversold makes for an interesting development.
In my opinion, BTC is the safest asset there is right now. Diversity is not good in crypto. Diversity is more risk; not hedging. If you want a sure thing you should just go all in on BTC. Unfortunately for me this isn't really an option considering that my stake in Hive is tied to not only my reputation but also my political actions. Need to support the community I want to succeed so we can continue on into the sunset. Do as I say not as I do.
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