Corona Virus isn't the only thing cleaning house.

The hedge funds and the institutions are rampaging these markets and buying everything. Housing is in a bubble not because housing is doing well, but more along the mantra of, "You will own nothing, and you will be happy." Well, apparently in order to own nothing someone has to swoop in and buy everything first. The federal reserve is establishing itself as the buyer of last-resort. When will you sell out?

• $29k
• $37k
• $44k
• $47k

Bitcoin: confirming supply shock since July 20th.

Lucky for us bitcoin can't be bought out so easily. We've already created a diehard base of holders who aren't going to sell no matter how high the spot price goes. Supply has run out, and we are now confirming the 4th supply shock within the last 5 weeks.

If Bitcoin moves above $50k within the next couple days on low volume, this will confirm the fourth supply shock and reaffirm the idea that the 4-year mega-bubble cycle is still perfectly on track. I still can't get over how childish everyone was being during just 2 months of consolidation and after only 10 days of downward action.

This is the start to a multi-year bear market.

Yet, a multi-year bear market has never even happened (for Bitcoin). In fact, Bitcoin has never been in a bear market. Correcting 80% after going x10 is not a bear market. That's just Bitcoin continuing to double in value every year exponentially.

Bitcoin Doubling Curve

Should Bitcoin continue doubling every year with a mega-bubble every four years, We'll be peaking around $4M BTC as soon as 2025. Of course while BTC is crashing from $250k to $50k in 2022 it will be declared "dead" a thousand times over just like it always is. The children will never learn, because there is a sucker born every minute. These statistics aren't ever going to change. The average person will always be ignorant to what's going on. All we can do is keep grinding forward in order to outpace the herd.

Looking at the supply-shock line I've drawn above, what happens when we extrapolate into the future? In 35 days we've gone from supply-shock at $29k to supply shock at $47k, a difference of $18k in 35 days. That's pretty much $500 a day. If this supply shock support holds for the next 128 days (end of the year) that puts us at a minimum of $111k support for Bitcoin at the end of Q4. Sounds about right considering I expect a spike to around $250k.

In fact, resistance around $100k is sure to be quite brutal at this point because of the unit-bias in play. Many many users are going to sell there. Judging by the extrapolation I've done here it's possible that supply shock will not push us over $100k until 22 days before the end of the year (early December). Also, judging by previous history, it takes around 3 weeks for the mega-bubble to fully peak (21 days), so these timelines seem to be somewhat lining up.

Need a bit of a buffer.

I tried to apply for a credit card the other day and got declined. I resubmitted the application for a secured card and was approved instantly so that was nice. Unfortunately, a secured card means I have to provide the collateral for the credit card, and it won't become a real credit card until I've shown I can make payments for six months or something like that (at least that's what I've come to understand).

While I don't plan on spending credit on crypto, it will be nice to have the extra buffer in play so I can live off of credit when the market is down and pay off my cards when the market is up (if only it was that simple). That's the plan anyway. I'm also looking to build my credit back up after scamming the credit card companies for $10k all those years ago. Worth.

Conclusion

There's a good amount of unit-bias resistance at $50k, but we are in the bullish cycle and supply-shock support is pushing up $500 a day (currently at $47k). Judging by this pattern the market will be FORCED higher than $50k in less than a week. More like a matter of days, and when it does, it will spike up from the pressure built up here. Testing $55k will come very shortly after breaking $50k.

It will be interesting to see if such a steep support line upwards is able to maintain itself in the months ahead. I would assume not considering how quickly the price is going up, but you never know, this is a mega-bubble year. I'll be keeping an eye out and will immediately report when this line eventually breaks. Hopefully that won't happen until 2022.

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