The quadruple bottom at $30k seems to have held as we made all time highs today. Every day that the market remains above $35k is bullish, and every day it remains above $40k is extremely bullish.
The assumption is that the price pumped today due to the SEC unveiling that Tesla purchased $1.5B worth of Bitcoin in January. This information can not be found on Musk's social media or publicly from Tesla or SpaceX. Are they trying to keep it quiet or did the lawyers recommend as much? Who knows.
In any case, a month between all time highs is a long enough time period to assume that this market is not deflating, and may indeed just be getting started. Considering all the fundamental and speculative developments going on, it's now quite possible that February and perhaps even early March will remain bullish. That being said I think that late March could dip in both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Bearish scenario...
This pump was just a psychout that took us slightly above all time highs before we collapse back to $20k in late March. I said as much before, that we should expect a dead-cat-bounce slightly below or slightly above the all time high. However, considering how quickly this thing flagged at $40k signals that the bears may be completely out of control.
This is especially true when we consider the volume during that initial dump from $40k to $30k when we surpassed 100k BTC per day on Coinbase alone. Lots of wealth has transferred hands during this consolidation, and by every indication the sharks are going to be holding for a while.
Bullish scenario.
Bitcoin continues to spike up to $60k. Coincidentally enough, a 30% retracement from $60k brings us exactly back down to the $42k range, Bitcoin's previous all time high. Seems like a scenario that has a high chance of playing out, especially considering $60k is exactly x2 the local lows of the $30k quadruple bottom.
This would put us at $60k sometime in late Feb or early March, with a crash back down to $42k in late March or early April. It think it's highly likely that we get a dump in late March no matter what happens.
Stimulus checks
But you know what might happen in late March? Yep... $1400 stimulus checks might be going out. Wouldn't that be something. How much of that money will make it's way into Bitcoin and held there? Who knows, but everyone expects that at least some of it will, guaranteed.
Important to note that if stimulus checks go out say early/mid March this just increases the chance of a dump in late March. Again, my bullish target would be $60k to $42k.
Fantasy Bitcoin
So I sold one point of my stack at $40k, with 19 more points still in Bitcoin. In retrospect now that Bitcoin has flagged up, was this a bad play? Of course not: the merits of professional gambling can not be judged in retrospect. If I go all in with AA in Texas Holdem and lose, I can't tell myself that was a bad play because I lost in retrospect. Going all in with AA preflop is always the superior play if you can get people to call you.
Therefore, I'm not even thinking about reentering the market right now at a loss. Being one point out is still a good mini-hedge, and if I'm right about the bullish scenario I can wait till we get to $60k, sell out a couple more points, and rebuy all-in at the $42k range in late March.
Conclusion
Perhaps Christmas has come early this year. Or perhaps Christmas just never went away. The pump today signals that this mega-bubble might be even stronger than the last one.
I believe the doubling curve is still in play, so the true baseline support of Bitcoin is still sitting at $15k by the end of the month. However, there is a strong chance we won't return to the curve for 2 whole years. Pretty wild.
And what will the doubling curve be in 2 years? Around $52k. I think it's pretty safe to assume that a lot of folks are going to get absolutely wrecked when this thing comes back to Earth. Luckily we may not have to worry about that for an entire year at least.
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