Over the course of my life I've been asked what my five or ten year plan is. Usually this revolves around a career path or starting a family... planning for retirement or whatever else.
- Is owning a house a priority?
- Are we paying into retirement accounts?
- Are we working a dead-end job or is there a future with the company?
- blah blah blah blah blah
Personally the very fiber of my essence rejects the corporate rat race and ladder climbing a rigged system. I never had a answer to these questions, and honestly I still don't. My life path has been largely hidden from me, and crypto has only opened a small keyhole of information as to where this is all going. Such is the fate of rebuilding underneath the ruins of this failed system. There are no certainties.
So here I stand, adrift.
Waiting for my moment of opportunity. If I'm being honest I'm starting to greatly favor my current positioning after these four long years.
So rather than a five or ten year plan, I ask: what's your four year plan?
Because if the Bitcoin halving event keeps making these huge waves in the market, that's how long we have to plan ahead to make sure we don't get washed out to sea. Crypto is so volatile that everyone who can afford it should take enough gains during the good times to buy themselves at least a year's worth of runway. Lucky for me I'm in the Scrappers Guild and only need like $12k to make it through a bad year. Here in America that's well under the poverty line, but what can I say? I make due with what I've got. Cost of living be damned.
Something I've noticed about crypto is that if it's too good to be true, then it's too good to be true. That's exactly how I was feeling in May when I refused to sell the top. My stacks were living large and the market was never going to come back down. Same story, different cycle. It's easy to get trapped by our own unnecessary greed. Crypto is not the place to make extreme leveraged bets on an already ruthlessly volatile market. When dealing with assets that gain value exponentially, we should be hedging our bets, not doubling down on them.
All I can say is that if you suddenly find yourself with real money in your pocket after a nice run... take some gains. It doesn't have to be a lot. In fact it absolutely should not be a lot: Just enough so if the price goes back down you'll be happy you made the balanced decision.
That's the thing about maintaining balance in crypto: you always win. Number goes up, you win (sell a tiny bit more). Number goes down, you win (buy the dip). Now that we have Defi yield farms this all happens automatically, providing exponentially more liquidity to the network. The upgrades and development surrounding the cryptosphere are the thing of legend.
Where will we be in four years?
Well, if all goes according to 'the plan' we get a mega-bubble at the end of the year, followed by a year long crypto winter (in which alts might be stuck in for an extra year like last time). However, DEFI creates a huge unknown variable because AMM yield farms are such a massive liquidity trap. Who knows what's going to happen there. I'm guessing it will be quite the show.
So really at the end of the day we really only need to plan one year ahead: the year of the crypto winter. I'm penciling that in for the majority 2022. Avoid the pain of the next crypto winter and we should all be on top of the world. Easier said than done considering my 4 years experience on the matter. It's so easy to get trapped by FOMO, even after making a 10x gain.
Conclusion
Maybe planning for the future will become a thing of the past. Perhaps it will be impossible to plan for the future. I could imagine such a scenario play out if technology keeps doing what it's doing. You can't make plans for the future if both money and governance are transitioning to a superior open-source tech and developing at lightning speeds out of sheer necessity. Our entire world could completely change over the next ten years with everything that's going on right now. The internet got a big upgrade: money. Who knows what will happen next.
Until then we can always try. Plans may fall through, but it's always good to have them in order to anchor our goals to reality and set realistic timelines. Godspeed.
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